When will it feel like winter in Raleigh? The Farmer’s Almanac says our turn is coming

Pictures of the dusting of early snow that greeted some folks in the North Carolina mountains this week has inspired a bit of winter envy in our part our of the state.

Down here, where no one ever really puts away their porch furniture, winter is more a state of mind some years than a matter of meteorology.

Still, we have consulted two of our favorite weather sources for opinions on when it will “feel” like winter in Raleigh and the rest of the eastern half of the state.

The Farmers’ Almanac

Using its secret forecasting formula, the age-old Farmers’ Almanac offers up dates for what are essentially “spells” of particular kinds of weather throughout the year.

As a point of fact, the Almanac predicted the first cold spell would be Oct. 1-3, when frost would invade some parts of the South. Weather reports show Raleigh was not invaded; temperatures topped out in the low 80s here those days.

November — technically still fall — offers more hope for those who look good in fleece.

According to the Almanac:

▪ Nov. 4-7: Fair and cold, with frost expected.

▪ Nov. 16-19: Cold enough for there to be wet snow in the Tennessee Valley. Rain elsewhere.

▪ Nov. 28-30: Mix of snow and sleet in Tennessee and N.C. mountains, cold rain elsewhere.

▪ Dec. 20-23: Just when you need it most — around Christmas — another front will bring cold rain to much of North Carolina, with snow in the mountains. Clearing by Dec. 27.

▪ Dec. 29-31: A storm will come up the coast, bringing a threat of precipitation. The Almanac doesn’t say whether that will be snow or rain.

The impartial government forecast

Meteorologist Nick Luchetti in the Raleigh office of the National Weather Service notes that a moderate-to-strong El Nino continues to develop and is likely to cause weather in North Carolina and across the Southeast to be wetter and colder than normal.

The forecasting problem, Luchetti says, is that it won’t necessarily be colder at the same time it’s wetter, meaning it’s hard to say if there will be snow.

As to when it will feel like winter here, Luchetti has some caveats.

First, the average high in our part of North Carolina in winter months — December, January and February, meteorologically — is in the low- to mid-50s. So if you relocated here from Michigan, it might never feel like winter. You’ll get used to it.

Second, the National Weather Service only makes specific forecasts seven days out.

However, the agency’s Climate Prediction Center looks at trends that can affect weather over the long term, and as of last week, it said there’s a 50% to 55% likelihood that temperatures will be below normal in North Carolina through Nov. 10.

Mother Nature still has in store for us at least one more tropical storm, which is likely to form in the Atlantic later this week.

Now that’s cold.