'Feels like a coin-flip game': Colts are favored over Commanders

The Indianapolis Colts have a brand-new starting quarterback. The Washington Commanders have a quarterback with more experience than that but is a career backup. It's hard to know what to expect in this NFL Week 8 matchup.

The Colts, with Sam Ehlinger making his starting debut (he has taken a few snaps in a game), are favored by 2.5 points, according to Draft Kings. The over/under is 39.5 total points.

Indianapolis is 3-4 against the spread, covering in their wins. Colts games have hit the over just once, in their Week 6 win over Jacksonville. Four of their games have finished under by double digits.

Doyel:Doyel: Colts' offensive line let down Matt Ryan. Is Sam Ehlinger next?

The Commanders, who have Taylor Heinicke starting for the second straight week, are 3-4 against the spread, covering in their wins. Three Washington games have gone over, and four have finished under.

ESPN's matchup predictor gives Washington a 54.3% chance to win, while TeamRanking.com gives Indianapolis a 53.3% chance and FiveThirtyEight gives the Colts an edge at 54%.

Here come the predictions.

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Commanders 23-22

This is Taylor Heinicke against Sam Ehlinger. Bet you can't wait. The Colts will play Ehlinger the rest of the season with Matt Ryan being injured for now and also benched. Ehlinger can move around, which will help the Colts' bad offensive line. The Commanders have won two straight as their defense is playing better. I think they get the best of it here.

Sheil Kapadia, The Ringer: Commanders to cover the spread

So (Colts owner Jim) Irsay wanted Carson Wentz traded, then signed off on the Ryan trade, and now prefers Ehlinger? I’m not sure that the Colts have a sound process in place here. It’s possible that Ehlinger gives them a boost of energy. We see that often with new quarterbacks. But the truth is the Colts just don’t have a lot of talent on offense.

Taylor Heinicke didn’t exactly light it up last week, but Washington’s defensive front can still create problems. In what feels like a coin-flip game, I’ll take the points.

Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News: Colts 24-21

The Commanders won't have Carson Wentz returning to start in Indy in a revenge game. But in a twist, Matt Ryan will no longer be Wentz's replacement, as the Colts are turning to second-year QB Sam Ehlinger for this matchup and the rest of the season. That should spark Jonathan Taylor and talented wideouts Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce as the Colts look to cut down on mistakes and better support the strong defense.

Vic Tafur, The Athletic: Commanders cover the spread

The Colts will say they didn’t wave the white flag when they benched Matt Ryan for Sam Ehlinger, but they most certainly did. Coach Frank Reich has no idea how to fix the running game or a soft defense, and the owner didn’t want to spend another $17 million and watch Ryan, with his snail speeded, get sacked and fumble another couple dozen times. That’s how much the Colts will save in Ryan’s additional salary guarantees and 2023 roster bonus if he sustained an injury.

The Commanders, meanwhile, have won two games in a row. Quarterback Taylor Heinicke is not very good, but he can scramble and he throws to Terry McLaurin, so he’s a lot better than Carson Wentz. Wentz ranked seventh in sack rate on pressured dropbacks (27.2%), which Heinicke cut in ninths. Heinicke had a 2.9 percent sack rate in the win over the Packers despite the Commanders allowing pressure on a season-high 51.4 % of dropbacks. Defensively, the Commanders can stop the run, so the Colts need Ehlinger — a 2021 sixth-round pick who doesn’t have a plus arm and likes to run for tough yards — to play very well to win.

Sam Farmer, Los Angeles Times: Colts 24-20

The Commanders have won two in a row, and the Colts have a new (and inexperienced) quarterback under center. Still, if Sam Ehlinger doesn’t take a ton of sacks and turn it over, Indianapolis can win.

B.J. Rudell, Pro Football Network: Colts cover the spread

Does Indianapolis have a new No. 1 WR? We’ve waited several years for Parris Campbell to be healthy enough to contribute. In the last two weeks, he’s reminded everyone why the Colts were excited to draft him, and why they’ve stuck with him. Don’t be surprised if he’s once again a difference-maker, and against the hit-or-miss Commanders, that might be enough.

Bleacher Report: Commanders 23-20

While Sam Ehlinger brings more athleticism to the Colts’ quarterback position, and Indianapolis has Jonathan Taylor in the backfield, the AFC South club has an inexperienced signal-caller who hasn’t thrown a regular-season pass in the NFL.

Most of us can see Washington taking advantage of Ehlinger’s greenness to win this game and get back to .500.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Colts vs Commanders picks, predictions, betting odds for NFL Week 8