Have you filled out your NCAA Bracket? ProJo's Bill Koch makes his predictions
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First, a disclaimer — this column would be filed from a corner suite at The Venetian if its observations could be guaranteed.
That’s the magic of this month in college basketball. Bluebloods can just as easily fall victim to low majors as they can capture an NCAA Tournament title. Fortunes can change over the course of a few minutes or a single possession.
Providence is back on the stage after reaching the Sweet 16 in 2021-22. It was a first for the Friars in 25 years and capped a campaign where they took home a Big East regular season crown. Ed Cooley’s program stands alone after being joined by Bryant in the last edition of the event.
The next three weekends will feature upsets, brilliant individual performances and coaches who raise the ceiling on their own personal futures. That’s a certainty – predicting how and when the lightning strikes is the real trick to filling out a bracket. The right No. 14 seed, the wrong No. 1 seed, the perfect No. 4 seed – they can all affect winning your pool or simply making a donation.
Here’s a bit of a big-picture primer to consider before sending out Venmo funds you’re unlikely to ever see again. Enjoy.
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Who will win the NCAA's East Region
Winner – Marquette
Surprise – Duke
Headline – Big East Tournament, Part II
The Golden Eagles will be a trendy selection to reach a first Final Four since 2003. Marquette swept outright Big East regular season and tournament titles, the first program aside from Villanova to do so since Louisville in 2008-09. Cumberland native Tyler Kolek was the conference Player of the Year and sits as one of the nation’s top point guards.
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The Blue Devils were a team in transition to start the season – Jon Scheyer took over for Hall of Fame coach Mike Krzyzewski and injuries sidelined multiple members of the projected rotation. Duke has surged into March Madness by winning 12 of its last 14, including the ACC Tournament. The surprise wouldn’t be capturing a couple games – it would involve making a Final Four run as a No. 5 seed.
Marquette and Providence are both two wins from meeting in the Sweet 16 at Madison Square Garden. A week ago that lined up as a possible Big East semifinal on the same floor – the stakes would be considerably higher deeper into the month. The Friars need to handle Kentucky and either Kansas State or Montana State to escape the opening rounds.
Who will win the NCAA's South Region
Winner – Alabama
Surprise – Utah State
Headline – Brandon Miller
The Crimson Tide will be expected to reach their first Final Four in program history as the No. 1 overall seed. Alabama gets up and down at a fast tempo, plays top-3 field goal defense both inside and beyond the 3-point arc and won its three SEC Tournament games by a combined 53 points.
Chalk only reigns on that top line – San Diego State, Creighton, Utah State and UC-Santa Barbara are all worthwhile risks in terms of upset picks. The Aggies in particular could make a deep run – elite shooting touch, a difficult schedule and experience set them apart from most peers.
The tragic story that will follow the Crimson Tide throughout their run involves star Brandon Miller. The freshman delivered a handgun to a former teammate that was eventually used in a February murder. Miller avoided criminal charges or any discipline from the program – public scrutiny for his role in the death of Jamea Jonae Harris shouldn’t be allowed to fade.
Who will win the NCAA's Midwest Region
Winner – Texas
Surprise – Pittsburgh
Headline – Potential reunions
The Longhorns have persisted after former coach Chris Beard was fired in the wake of a domestic violence arrest. Interim coach Rodney Terry has done a superb job leading a veteran roster to a Big 12 Tournament title and a No. 2 seed in the field. Texas drilled defending national champion Kansas by a combined 36 points in two of its last four victories.
Don’t expect the next Saint Peter’s or Oral Roberts to emerge here. Pittsburgh has the best chance to cause a small ripple if it can take care of Mississippi State in the First Four and Iowa State in the opening round. The Panthers are back and relevant after an extended rebuild under coach Jeff Capel.
The top half of the region could find Houston coach Kelvin Sampson matched up with Indiana in the Sweet 16 – a place where he coached from 2006-08 before leaving under NCAA investigation. Pittsburgh winning twice could match them up with Xavier in the Round of 32. Musketeers coach Sean Miller was a gritty point guard with the Panthers from 1987-92.
Who will win the NCAA's West Region
Winner – Gonzaga
Surprise – Boise State
Headline – West Coast Conference reigns supreme?
The Bulldogs know heartache in this event – kept one win shy of a perfect season by Baylor in 2020-21, a shocking Sweet 16 elimination against Arkansas in 2021-22. They’re somewhat forgotten this time around, and that could be beneficial. Kansas is a half-step shy of its championship form last season, UCLA has injury woes, Connecticut has yet to fire in the postseason under Dan Hurley – the door could finally be open.
The Broncos are seeded too low at No. 10 and could tip as a betting favorite against Northwestern. The Bruins would be waiting in the next round without Jaylen Clark (Achilles) and Adem Bona (shoulder). Sacramento could feel more like home for Boise State in that potential meeting than the No. 2 seed.
There’s a real chance Gonzaga could meet Saint Mary’s with a Final Four berth on the line. The Gaels are a handful in the top half of the region – a certain threat to the Huskies and Jayhawks. Complete those two upsets and their league rival could be waiting for a fourth meeting in 2022-23.
bkoch@providencejournal.com
On Twitter: @BillKoch25
This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: NCAA Bracket primer by Providence Journal's Bill Koch
