Film study: What’s wrong with Patrick Mahomes? … And can he turn things around?
When the 2021 NFL season began, the Kansas City Chiefs were a popular pick to win the AFC and make their third consecutive Super Bowl appearance.
Sure, they lost some pieces from their once-imposing defense, but they still had the great Patrick Mahomes leading their offense and directing talented teammates such as wideout Tyreek Hill, tight end Travis Kelce and tailback Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Few anticipated the Chiefs would be sitting at 3-4 through Week 7. After all, the Chiefs haven’t lost more than four games in an entire season since Mahomes became the team’s starting quarterback in 2018.
Yet here we are. The Chiefs are tied for last place in the AFC West, and Mahomes is tied for the league lead with nine interceptions.
Despite the Chiefs’ 27-3 loss at the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, Kansas City’s offense still ranks eighth in the NFL in points scored and third in yards gained. However, the Chiefs defense ranks 27th in the league in points allowed and 28th in yards allowed.
It would be understandable if Mahomes were trying to play superhero and do too much to cover for a defensive unit that is struggling mightily. He admitted as much after the Tennessee game, saying he was “just pressing a little bit too early in the game.”
In a nutshell, Mahomes is gunning for big plays when they simply aren’t there instead of taking modest gains on open underneath routes.
All of which leads up to two important questions: What is wrong with Mahomes? And can he turn things around this season?
When we look at what is happening in front of Mahomes, he isn’t even facing that much pressure. In fact, according to Pro Football Reference, he’s facing the least pressure of his entire career this season.
Nevertheless, Mahomes’ pocket time is the lowest figure of his career. That leads us to believe he’s regularly evading the pocket too early.
Before Mahomes feels the pressure from his left side, he is already rolling out to the sideline in the clip above. We stop the film to see an open receiver available in the image below.
This wasn’t the only time Mahomes tried to do too much on the run.
Also against the Titans, Mahomes passed up a short gain to an open receiver, failed to slide to his left, instead ran to his favorite side and subsequently fumbled on the play.
Teams are pressuring Mahomes from the right side and going around to his throwing arm. This leads him to escape the pocket — but without his throwing arm free to make downfield throws. He’s not stepping up in the pocket. He’s only extending plays from outside the numbers.
Even when Mahomes checks down to a shorter pass, it can still result in a turnover, as in the clip below from Week 3 against the Los Angeles Chargers.
Let’s take a closer look at that play from the end zone.
A no-look pass? Mahomes can throw the ball to his receiver’s chest if he just looks at his target. Instead, he tries to do too much.
The fact is Mahomes no longer has a reliable defense, and his margin for error is slim. It could be said that his big-play ability has made him overconfident. He’s trying to do too much instead of taking what the defense gives him.
Chiefs opponents are playing more two-high safeties as a blanket over the top to prevent big plays, and then double-teaming Hill. Many of Kansas City’s offensive struggles stem from Mahomes not taking what the defense gives him, which are the passes underneath.
These concepts take time to open up, so Mahomes must stay patient and take his time in the pocket if he wants to get this offense back on track.
