The Final Four: How the FPI predicts the LSU Tigers to finish the season

·3 min read

Starting next Saturday the LSU Tigers begin their four-game stretch to end the 2021 college football season. They have two ranked foes left with Alabama and Texas A&M. Those games sandwich a date with Arkansas and UL-Monroe. Their final road game of the season will come next week when they head to Tuscaloosa and Bryant-Denny Stadium.

There isn’t a lot of reason for optimism, but they still have a bowl berth on the line. They missed last season due to a self-imposed bowl ban and the team would like to send their seniors out with a postseason game. How do they get there?

At minimum LSU needs to win two games, going 3-1 will secure a better bowl destination. Knocking off No. 3 Alabama seems like a tall task but Arkansas, ULM, and Texas A&M are winnable games. The question remains on if you trust this team to pull it off.

A look at how the Football Power Index sees it.

LSU at Alabama

(Chris Graythen/Getty Images)

Win Probability: 5.6%

Following the open week, LSU will travel to Tuscaloosa for a battle with the Alabama Crimson Tide. Based on what we have seen from LSU this year, this game might not be pretty. In losses, the Tigers have been beaten by 50 points in four games. Alabama remembers the last time at Bryant-Denny Stadium and is likely looking for redemption.

Arkansas at LSU

(Wesley Hitt/Getty Images)

Win Probability: 56.3%

This game is about as close to a coin flip as you can get. Arkansas got off to a hot start this year but has cooled in recent weeks. Both teams are seeking bowl eligibility and this game could go a long way to determining which team sees the postseason. LSU is No. 6 in the SEC West with Arkansas at No. 7, so which team avoids the basement?

UL Monroe at LSU

John Jones-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 96.7%

Most believe this about as close to an automatic win as the team has on their remaining schedule. However, don’t sleep on Terry Bowden’s crew. They are searching for bowl eligibility as well, the Warhawks are currently 4-3. Just two weeks ago they were able to defeat Liberty when no one thought they would win that game either.

Texas A&M at LSU

Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability: 41.4%

Despite knocking off then No. 1 Alabama, it doesn’t seem like the computers are buying into the Texas A&M Aggies. Their showing against Colorado was woeful. This team lost to Arkansas by 10 and by four to Mississippi State. If LSU could somehow find a way to figure it out, they could get to eight wins. However, based on their inability to run the football, this might be a tough game to win.

It appears that another .500 regular season is staring this team in the face. Going 6-6 with a bowl berth isn’t where we thought this team would be, but this is the hand they were dealt. Perhaps the Tigers can do the unthinkable and go 7-5 by winning three of the four games left.

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