The TikTok controversy in Congress is classic Washington theater, full of sound and fury, yet in the end signifying little.
Democrats and Republicans seem broadly united in their belief that…something’s off with TikTok, the hit social-media app with 150 million American users. They might even be right about that. But fulmination is about as far as Congress will go, because there aren’t enough senators and representatives willing to risk the consequences of action on something they know little about.
The issue is whether TikTok, owned by Chinese company ByteDance, could remit data on American users to China’s communist government for nefarious purposes. While TikTok gobbles up user data like any online service, there’s no evidence it is currently providing any of that to the Chinese government. Researchers at Georgia Tech recently investigated the issue and found that TikTok poses no more of a threat than Facebook, Twitter or any other social-media app.
That’s not an all-clear, though. Since its parent company ByteDance is headquartered in China, TikTok is subject to a Chinese law that requires Chinese companies to turn over any data Chinese intelligence services ask for. Facebook and Twitter obviously wouldn’t have to provide data on US users to a foreign government, and Americans firms often go to court to prevent even US authorities from obtaining their data.
Would there be intelligence value in the TikTok data of American users? Possibly. The app could track some activities of people with sensitive jobs, which is why the Biden administration recently barred anybody using a government phone from using TikTok on that device. That makes sense. It’s also possible China could force TikTok to promote government propaganda, if there were a confrontation with the United States or any other country. TikTok is setting up a data center in Texas to handle all US user data and says that should alleviate concerns about the possible misuse of data.
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The right way to think about TikTok is probably as a potential threat that bears watching, but for now as a wildly popular commercial operation. It might make sense to develop contingency plans should the Chinese government somehow try to weaponize the app.
But banning it absent some clear and present danger would be rash and probably backfire by enraging millions of users and damaging thousands of businesses that rely on TikTok for promotion.
Lawmakers grilled TikTok CEO Shou Chew during a March 23 Congressional hearing, where he broadly failed to assuage their security concerns. But lawmakers have their own blind spots on TikTok and social media in general. Out of 535 members of Congress, only about 30 have TikTok accounts, and only a handful of those are active users. If the numbers are correct, 150 million TikTok users account for about 45% of the US population. Only 6% of the members of Congress use TikTok. As with many other things, Congress does not represent the country in its use or understanding of TikTok.
Not surprisingly, TikTok users mocked some of the dumb questions committee members asked during the March 23 hearing. A goof that went viral was Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw of Texas asking Chew if, as a Chinese citizen, he’d have to hand over any data the Chinese government asked for. Chew corrected him by pointing out that he’s from Singapore, not China.
TikTok critics also assume that banning the app would simply send TikTok users to competing platforms such as Instagram, Snap or YouTube, as if all social apps are interchangeable. That’s not how TikTok users see it. Many think TikTok’s secret sauce includes algorithms that do a better job of recommending videos than other apps, leading to more engagement.
America would survive a TikTok ban, but anybody who thinks it would just blow over fails to understand the reach or appeal of TikTok. Most TikTok users are under 35. The typical House member is 58, while the typical senator is 65. A Congressional ban on TikTok would amount to oldsters telling youngsters what to do, with ugly political consequences.
Younger people vote in smaller proportions than older people, but they’re not politically inert. In 2020, 51% of 18- to 24-year-olds voted. That rose to 60% for 25- to 34-year-olds.
Young voters lean Democratic, and the high turnout of young voters may have helped Democrats over-perform in last year’s midterm elections.
Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo recently told the Wall Street Journal that banning TikTok could mean trouble. “You’re gonna literally lose every voter under 35, forever.” That may not bother Republicans. But it’s sure got to be on the minds of Democrats, who have a fighting chance to retake control of Congress in 2024.
While they lost the House last year, Democrats still control the Senate, giving them a de facto veto over any TikTok ban. It’s Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s job to make sure the Senate does nothing to impair Democratic electoral odds in 2024, and if that means stopping a TikTok ban, he’ll do it.
There are currently several bills that would ban TikTok outright, give the executive branch the authority to do it, or force ByteDance to sell TikTok to a non-Chinese entity as a condition for operating in the United States. Each has backers and opponents, and there’s no clear pathway for a compromise that could pass both the House and the Senate.
For all the feigned outrage, no TikTok ban is likely to pass. “Lawmakers talk about how bad they think TikTok is, but very few are willing to take the political hit for banning an app that 150 million Americans use,” Punchbowl News reported on March 29.
The Trump administration tried to ban TikTok by executive order in 2020 but lost in court. That’s why banning TikTok would require Congress to pass a law creating the authority to do it. Even that could face legal challenges, if it ever happened.
Meanwhile, there are ongoing negotiations between ByteDance and a US agency called CFIUS—the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States—which has authority over foreign investments in the United States that have national security implications. The Texas data-handling site is one outcome of those negotiations and part of a compromise that could keep TikTok going.
The prospect of a ban could give CFIUS more leverage over ByteDance, so in a way Congressional jawboning might actually help TikTok do what it must to remain an American phenom. What it won’t do is shut down the app.
Rick Newman is a senior columnist for Yahoo Finance. Follow him on Twitter at @rickjnewman
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