First comes frost. When comes snow? What to expect on the South Shore this winter
With the arrival of frost – and even snow, in some parts of central and western Massachusetts – in the new month, the unseasonably warm temperatures on the last Saturday in October are now just a distant memory.
Here comes winter.
When will the snow arrive? It’s a difficult thing to predict, a National Weather Service meteorologist said.
Snowfall can’t be predicted more than a week out, with more details available by the three-day forecast, said meteorologist Kristie Smith. Snow is not expected for the Boston area over the next week.
The first days of November brought chilly temperatures to the region. On Wednesday, Boston recorded a high of 45 degrees Fahrenheit and a low of 39 degrees. The high in Marshfield was 46 degrees with a low of 37 degrees. The low temperatures on Thursday sunk to 34 degrees and 32 degrees, respectively.
What El Nino tells us about winter weather
This winter is expected to be slightly warmer and wetter, according to the Climate Prediction Center, which is a division of the National Weather Service. Specific to the South Shore, that means a 40% to 50% likelihood of higher-than normal temperatures and precipitation. A strong El Nino, marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperature in parts of the Pacific Ocean, will remain through the winter.
But it’s tough to know specifically how El Nino will affect southern New England, Smith said. It could lead to “several mixed precipitation events” with snow across the central and western part of Massachusetts with a mix of rain and snow on the coast, she said. Specific to the South Shore, that means a 40% to 50% likelihood of higher-than normal temperatures and precipitation.
“That’s not to say we won’t see a really big Nor’easter or a dud of a winter,” she said.
For the past two years, the first inch of snow fell on the Boston area in mid-January, Smith said. But in 2020, the first snow fell the day before Halloween. The average first inch of snow is early December, Smith added.
Does it snow on the South Shore in November?
While it depends on the year, the South Shore doesn’t typically see snowfall in November – at least, not as much as it does December through March.
The total snowfall normal at the NWS station in Milton between 1991 and 2020 for November was 1.7 inches. By comparison, that figure was 12.8 inches for December, 18.2 inches for January and 21.2 inches for February.
Just one inch of snow was recorded in November 2021 at the Milton weather station, and one-tenth of an inch that same month two years prior. But in 2012, 2014 and 2018, between 6 and 8.7 inches of snow were recorded in those November months.
In Hingham, the total snowfall normal during that 30-year period in November was 0.7 inches. The figure rose to 8.8 inches in December and 14.8 inches in January. Little to no snow was recorded in the area in November since 2006, except for 1.7 inches in 2014 and 3 inches in 2018.
Patriot Ledger staff writer Fernando Cervantes Jr. contributed to this report.
Hannah Morse covers growth and development for The Patriot Ledger. Contact her at hmorse@patriotledger.com.
This article originally appeared on The Patriot Ledger: Massachusetts snow 2023: What the South Shore could be in for this winter
