First cool front for South Florida is early, but a welcome change to stifling summer heat
A gush of northerly winds will carry drier air and slightly lower temperatures through Florida beginning Friday, marking the first cool front of fall for the far southern reaches of the state.
The front is just in time for the autumn equinox on Saturday, but climatologically ahead of schedule with noticeable seasonal temperature changes not typically occurring in much of the Sunshine State until mid-to-late October.
Unlike a traditional winter cold front that carries frigid air from the Arctic or Canada, the one that's moving through on Friday is the product of a burgeoning tropical cyclone east of the state that will drag only mildly cooler air down from the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Regardless of the source, the counterclockwise spin of what could be Ophelia or Philippe may bring a small reprieve to the heat and mugginess from Jacksonville through the Florida Keys.
"While nasty weather looks likely north of the storm, the circulation around the system should push the first cold front of the season down the Florida peninsula for a refreshing period of somewhat lower humidity air for Friday and Saturday in South Florida," said Fox Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross in his Hurricane Intel forecast.
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The National Hurricane Center designated the area of low pressure east of Florida as Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 at its 11 a.m. advisory Thursday. That triggered tropical storm warnings and storm surge watches for the coasts of North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland.
A potential tropical cyclone is a system that the NHC believes will form near the coast but hasn't yet gained the defining characteristic of a closed center of circulation. It's a naming mechanism that allows watches and warnings to be issued ahead of a storm.
While the system is not expected to reach hurricane strength, it could muster sustained wind speeds of 60 mph before an early Saturday landfall in the Carolinas.
“It’s going straight north so the impacts are going to be limited to a high risk for rip currents and rough seas,” said Jacksonville-based National Weather Service meteorologist Will Corless about the system. “It might make it feel a little bit more like we are getting into fall versus being in the dog days of summer.”
Nearly all of Florida's temperature gauges measured by the Southeast Regional Climate center ranked this past summer in the top 10 warmest. Key West, Miami, Naples, Sarasota Lakeland, Fort Pierce, Orlando and Pensacola experienced their hottest summer on record June 1 through Aug. 31.
Meteorological summers include the months of June, July and August, while astronomical summers are based on the June solstice and September equinox. Following Saturday's equinox is September's full harvest moon, which rises Sept. 29.
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West Palm Beach had its 6th warmest summer as measured at the Palm Beach International Airport.
"This summer has been brutal," said Carl May, who manages a property in Palm Beach. "The humidity and heat index have been genuinely debilitating."
May said newly-planted landscaping had to be babied through the summer with extra watering, and that yard maintenance workers finished their days by 1 p.m.
"A lot of us have taken breaks to simply sit in the shade fully clothed with a garden hose running over our heads to cool off," he said.
National Weather Service meteorologists in Miami are predicting high temperatures in the mid-80s on Friday through the weekend for West Palm Beach. The normal daytime high for late September is 88 degrees, but temperatures have hit 90 degrees or higher since Sept. 7.
Miami-based meteorologist Donal Harrigan is less bullish on the depth of changes that will come with the pending front, which he called “meaningless for all intents and purposes.”
“We are still expecting isolated scattered storms through the weekend that maybe won’t be as widespread or heavy,” Harrigan said. “The front is just something drawn on a map at this point.”
Tim Sedlock, an NWS meteorologist in Melbourne, is more optimistic. He said low temperatures could drop into the upper 60s west of I-95 with less humidity throughout Central Florida.
"We're still Florida. We'll still be warm," he said. "But it will feel better than we have."
The first day on average when the high remains below 80 as measured at Palm Beach International Airport is Nov. 20. The first occurrence on average of an overnight low under 70 is Oct. 27 in West Palm Beach.
A study of temperature, dew point temperature and rainfall patterns from 1956 to 1997 at Miami International Airport found that climatologically, the earliest date that summer ended was Sept. 24, and the latest was Nov. 1.
Kimberly Miller is a veteran journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate and how growth affects South Florida's environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. Help support our local journalism, subscribe today.
This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: Florida: Cooler temps, 'nasty weather' from possible subtropical storm
