The first elections with voter ID in NC are done. What was the impact? | Opinion

North Carolina voters who participated in local elections this fall encountered a new requirement – the need to present an approved photo ID.

The requirement took hold after years of legal battles – with some still ongoing – over whether the Republican-backed measure offered to prevent voting fraud is actually intended to suppress Democratic votes.

So what happened with the new photo ID requirement on Nov. 7, the biggest day for local elections? Not much, but maybe in the long run just enough to make a difference in larger elections.

The State Board of Elections will not have a tally of voters unable to have their vote counted because they lacked a photo ID until the canvas is completed on Nov. 17. But anecdotally there were few reports of votes blocked by the requirement.

That’s consistent with results from primary elections in September and October in which the photo ID requirement was also in place. Of nearly 99,000 votes cast in those primary elections, the votes of 40 would-be voters were not counted because the voters did not present an acceptable photo ID.

Opponents of the requirement would say that’s 40 votes too many, but as a practical matter it appears that the numbers are unlikely to affect the results in an election. But as turnout grows, so should the concern.

In the Nov. 7 vote, more than 511,000 people voted, which, if the primary rate of rejection holds, would result in some 200 voters denied.

And in the 2024 general election, when more than 5 million people are expected to vote, the number of votes blocked by the photo ID requirement could be significant. (Remember that the 2020 race for state Supreme Court chief justice was decided by by 401 votes out of 5,545,848 ballots cast.)

Arguably, the percentage of voters blocked by the ID requirement could be higher in the 2024 election than in elections so far. Voters in local elections tend to be regular voters, but a presidential contest draws thousands of occasional voters who may not be familiar with the new rules.

Voting rights advocates say that votes denied at the polls because of failure to show a photo ID are only the tip of the iceberg. The broader obstruction occurs, they say, when registered voters decide not to vote because they lack the necessary photo ID.

“We know it does create another impediment for people trying to get to the polls,” said Ann Webb, policy director at Common Cause North Carolina, a group that has sued to stop gerrymandering and new restrictions on voting.

In 2005, Indiana was the first state to require a photo ID to vote. The U.S. Supreme Court upheld the law by a 6-3 vote in 2008. Today, 10 states, including North Carolina, have a strict photo ID requirement to vote, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. Those voters without a photo ID and no allowable excuse for not having it must cast a provisional ballot and take additional steps after Election Day for it to be counted.

Researchers have delivered mixed findings on whether the photo ID requirement suppresses votes. Democrats contend that it creates an obstacle for lower-income minority voters who are less likely to have a driver’s license or other acceptable IDs and are more likely to vote Democratic.

However, one of the more rigorous studies published in 2020 found that in the 2012 to 2016 elections “the gap in turnout between more racially diverse and less racially diverse counties grew more in states enacting new strict photo ID laws than it did elsewhere.”

Webb said the voter ID requirement is part an effort by Republican lawmakers to narrow access to voting. “We like to say, ‘In 2023 there will be voter ID. In 2024, there will be more,’” Webb said.

It’s a wonder that 15 years after the imposition of the first voter photo ID requirement, it isn’t clear whether or how much it reduces turnout. But one thing is clear. The fraud it aims to prevent - in-person voter impersonation – is virtually nonexistent.

Which invites the question: Why were Republican lawmakers so intent on imposing a strict photo ID requirement?

The answer lies in every vote it denies.

Associate opinion editor Ned Barnett can be reached at 919-404-7583, or nbarnett@ newsobserver.com