First GOP debate may tell us: Is the Republican party dying or about to be reborn? | Opinion

The first Republican presidential debate Wednesday night will kick off a year of campaigning that will set the stage for the GOP to splinter, disintegrate,and “die” a slow death, or falter and be reborn.

Which will it be?

Of course, the clear frontrunner, Donald Trump, has already bowed out of the debate, citing the fact that his voters already know who he is. He has pre-recorded an interview with Tucker Carlson, the former Fox News host. (It’s not clear yet if it will run at the same time as the debate online.)

For all his flaws, crimes, and pathological lies, refusing to join a national, televised debate and jumping to another platform that will probably garner just as many or more views, is a brilliant political move. If we know Trump, this decision comes from his sense of entitlement, his omnipresent hubris, not his political prowess. But sometimes it doesn’t matter.

Still, the most interesting thing about the debate will be that Trump is missing — and it will be tempting to make his absence the center of the debate. That would be a mistake.

The GOP is splintered into at least two factions, probably more. There are those who think Trump should be president because he was cheated out of it in 2020 and those who think Trump should be in jail due to one or more of the 91 criminal allegations against him in four jurisdictions.

In this moment, the GOP must determine what the party is with Trump and what it would be without him. Wednesday’s debate could be a gateway to that discussion. Does the GOP unabashedly support a president with a decent record during his term but an awful record afterwards, including refusing to accept the actual results of the election? If not, who does the GOP support and why? More importantly, can anyone else but Trump beat Joe Biden? Can Trump even beat Biden?

Here, the options should be plenty, but they’re not. Ron DeSantis is the closest to Trump, but he’s not particularly close. He’s fantastic on paper: Handsome, a family man, articulate, a former Navy SEAL, book smart, and a record as Florida’s governor that includes strong education initiatives, responding to hurricanes adeptly, and putting parents first when it comes to policies. But his campaign has struggled. In the shadow of Trump, DeSantis can’t pick up speed.

So, you’ve got two Republican parties right now. The party for Trump, who believes the election was rigged and that the criminal allegations against him are proof of a weaponized justice system. The other party is a bevy of onlookers and lifelong politicians who know that Trump is nuts but can’t seem to gain any traction. To be sure, the GOP looks like it’s faltering, slowly disintegrating into a shadow of its former Reaganesque self.

But Republican principles are alive — especially when we see Biden failing so miserably. And Democrats aren’t doing much better in growing their party, if that’s any consolation. Conservatives still for the most part embrace liberty, free speech, smaller government and personal responsibility — everything just looks different when Trump is the ringleader. His loud personality clouds everything, even those basic principles.

It may be that the party needs to “die” once and for all: Nominate Trump again and watch as he’s soundly beaten, then get up, start again and vow to nominate men and women who can represent these important principles. Or, perhaps the remaining handful of candidates on stage in Milwaukee will be so refreshing, so intellectually invigorating, so unbothered by Trump that they’ll pull enough votes from Trump to leave him behind.

Either way, the form the current party has taken cannot stand: It’s a house truly divided against itself. It must determine who it is without Trump. With Trump it cannot survive, and without him, there may be no one else can break through and win, even against a weak Democrat such as Biden.

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