The Atlantic hurricane season started Wednesday, and as if on cue, a storm is likely to form within the next couple of days and possibly threaten South Florida over the weekend.
The system has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression while it moves northeast over the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said.
If it gets a name, which it would if its sustained winds reach 39 mph, it would be called Tropical Storm Alex.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize for the next day or so, spreading across western Cuba, South Florida and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday, the Hurricane Center said.
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The National Weather Service in Miami said that "the chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase by the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend across South Florida."
"With the potential for deep tropical moisture moving into the area, heavy rainfall during this time frame could lead to localized flooding across South Florida, especially in areas that have been saturated due to recent heavy rains," the Weather Service said.
Though the rain will help alleviate drought, too much rain too quickly could lead to urban and low-lying area flooding, AccuWeather warned.
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"There is also the potential for a few tornadoes and waterspouts as the system crosses the Florida Peninsula or passes just to the south of Florida," AccuWeather senior meteorologist Brett Anderson said.
Meanwhile, a second system in the Atlantic northeast of the Bahamas has only a 10% chance of development, the Hurricane Center said.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs through Nov. 30. Federal forecasters expect above-normal activity for the seventh straight year: As many as 10 hurricanes are possible.
And in the Pacific, Hurricane Agatha made landfall Monday afternoon as a strong Category 2 hurricane 5 miles west of Puerto Angel, Mexico, in an area of fishing villages and small beach towns, packing maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. At least 11 people died in the storm, local officials said.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: First named storm of Atlantic hurricane season could form soon