First place in NFC South on the line when Mayfield's Buccaneers host Ridder's Falcons

ATLANTA (3-3) at TAMPA BAY (3-2)

Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT, FOX

FANDUEL SPORTSBOOK NFL LINE: Buccaneers by 2½.

AGAINST THE SPREAD: Atlanta 1-5; Tampa Bay 3-2.

SERIES RECORD: Buccaneers lead 30-29.

LAST MEETING: Falcons beat Buccaneers 30-17 on Jan. 8, 2023, in Atlanta.

LAST WEEK: Falcons lost to Commanders 24-16 in Atlanta; Buccaneers lost to Lions 20-6 in Tampa.

FALCONS OFFENSE: OVERALL (16), RUSH (10), PASS (18), SCORING (29).

FALCONS DEFENSE: OVERALL (4), RUSH (11), PASS (4), SCORING (14).

BUCCANEERS OFFENSE: OVERALL (25), RUSH (29), PASS (17), SCORING (25).

BUCCANEERS DEFENSE: OVERALL (19), RUSH (7), PASS (26), SCORING (8).

TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL: Falcons minus 6; Buccaneers plus-6.

FALCONS PLAYER TO WATCH: RB Bijan Robinson’s rushing production is on the decline even as he continues to make an impact as a receiver. Robinson has been held to under 50 rushing yards in three of the past four games, including 13 carries for 37 yards last week against Washington. He’s still averaging a strong 5.0 yards per carry for the season with 80 rushes for 401 yards, but is still looking for his first touchdown on the ground. He often lines up wide instead of as a running back and has two TD catches among his 26 receptions for 189 yards.

BUCCANEERS PLAYER TO WATCH: QB Baker Mayfield looks to rebound from a subpar performance in a two-touchdown loss to the Detroit Lions. The Bucs were limited to two field goals and had less than 200 total yards before gaining 69 on their final possession.

KEY MATCHUP: Tampa Bay’s struggling run game vs. a Falcons defense that’s held opponents to 99 yards per game on the ground. Despite a concerted effort to remain committed to running the ball, the Bucs were held to 46 yards on 16 attempts last week and rank 29th among 32 teams at 78.8 yards per game.

KEY INJURIES: When the Falcons began preparation for Sunday’s game, no players were listed as missing practice because of an injury. Buccaneers OLB Anthony Nelson (concussion) was a full participant Wednesday, while NT Vita Vea (foot) was limited.

SERIES NOTES: The Buccaneers have won five of the past six meetings, with the Falcons’ lone win over that span coming in last year’s regular-season finale — a game in which Tom Brady started but did not finish because Tampa Bay had already clinched the NFC South championship and a home playoff date.

STATS AND STUFF: Falcons WR Drake London has 98 receptions through 23 games. London needs two catches to reach 100 in his 24th game. Only Julio Jones (23 games) reached 100 receptions in fewer games in Falcons history. … London set career highs with nine receptions and 125 yards against Washington last week. … Robinson’s 26 catches lead NFL running backs. His 189 receiving yards rank second among running backs. … Through five games, the Falcons were tied for last in the league with five sacks. They doubled that total with five against the Commanders. … DL Calais Campbell had his first sack of the season, and 100th of his career, against Washington. … LB Arnold Ebiketie had 1½ sacks. … The revamped Atlanta defense ranks fourth in total defense and fourth in passing defense but a less-impressive 14th while allowing 20 points per game. ... Sunday’s start will be the 75th of Mayfield’s career. In his only previous start against the Falcons, he completed 17 of 20 passes for 216 yards and three touchdowns for Cleveland in a 28-16 win in 2018. ... The Buccaneers offensive line has allowed an NFL-low five sacks. The unit also has yielded the fewest quarterback hits (15) through five games. ... First place in the NFC South will be on the line Sunday. The Bucs have won the past two division titles. Since Week 4 of the 2021 season, Tampa Bay has held at least a share of first place 38 of the past 39 weeks. ... Bucs WR Mike Evans needs one TD reception to tie Hines Ward and Hall of Famers Lance Alworth and Paul Warfield for 18th most in NFL history with 85.

FANTASY TIP: Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin has 59 receptions for 844 yards and nine TDs over his past nine games against the Falcons. Evans, meanwhile, has 46 catches for 723 yards and nine TDs in eight home games vs. Atlanta.

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