First poll numbers show a wide-open race for RI governor

PROVIDENCE — Rhode Island Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea is not the first candidate to go public with a "polling memo" touting selective results of a poll conducted by her own pollster.

But she's the first to do so in the 2022 race for governor.

Her campaign team quickly followed it up with a fundraising pitch that declared her "a leader" among the Democratic contenders in a race that includes the current governor, Dan McKee.

The other leading candidates have not challenged Gorbea's numbers, which provide the first glimpse of what potential Rhode Island voters are thinking in a year when there are not yet any independent polling numbers available.

McKee's campaign acknowledges spotting the same lineup in a poll last May.

So what do Gorbea's numbers show? Hint: The potential front-runner, at this early point, is not the candidate with the most money.

The poll numbers

The Gorbea campaign reported these top-line findings of the survey that Lake Research Partners conducted – by cellphone, landline and text message – of "500 likely 2022 Democratic primary voters" from Nov. 7 to 9:

McKee led the pack, but just barely, with 26%, followed closely by Gorbea at 24% and State Treasurer Seth Magaziner at 16%, in a poll with a self-described margin for error of 4.38%.

Matt Brown, the former secretary of state who waged a losing campaign for governor in 2018, was at 6% and former CVS executive Helena Foulkes at 4%, with 20% undecided.

Gorbea pollster Celinda Lake, who worked for Brown in 2018, told The Journal these numbers reflect the initial results before the potential voters were told "good things" about each of the candidates.

For example: Gorbea was described as "a transformative leader ... [who has] cut red tape, modernized our elections and clamped down on special-interest lobbying."

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McKee's top priority was said to be "guiding our state safely through the pandemic, while providing effective fiscal management, quality public education for all, and economic development centered on small businesses."

Magaziner "prioritized education and job creation, investing over $1.4 billion in repairing and replacing over 176 school buildings,'' and has promised, if elected governor, to "restore the American Dream."

After hearing the "positive" messages, Gorbea "catapulted" into the lead with 29%, followed by McKee at 21%, Magaziner at 19%, Brown at 9% and Foulkes at 6%, with 10% undecided and 7% saying they plan on voting for someone else, according to the memo.

Lake would neither confirm nor deny that the poll included highly negative questions about Gorbea's competitors.

One more piece: in her own poll, Gorbea also leads the "good-to-excellent" job approval rankings with 58%, compared to Magaziner at 55% and McKee at 45%.

Lake said the sampling was made up of both Democratic and unaffiliated voters, with a history of voting in Democratic primaries; 57% were female; 56% from in and around Providence; 9% Latino, 7% African American, 3% self-described as "mixed race" and 80% white.

As to why the Gorbea released the polling memo, campaign spokeswoman Dana Walton acknowledged one goal was to shift the focus away from the money race, where Gorbea trails both Magaziner, who was well ahead of the competition with $1.58 million cash on hand at the end of the last quarter, and McKee.

"Fundraising numbers matter, but I think in a state like Rhode Island, it matters less," Walton said. "The truth is, Nellie's votes are going to cost a little bit less because she is really well known and people like her.''

Brown University political science Prof. Wendy Schiller said: "It is typical of candidates in a crowded and tight primary race to release any polling that shows them in a good light, mostly to enhance their fundraising efforts.

"Campaign contributors like to "invest" in people they think can win, and Gorbea can try to use this poll to show that as long as McKee and Magaziner are both in the primary, she has a chance to win."

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After viewing the memo, veteran Rhode Island pollster Joseph Fleming said: "It does show that Nellie is definitely in the race and she's right up there towards the top tier."

But, "this [also] says to me ... it's an open race at this point,'' Fleming said. "There's a big undecided, which I would expect this early. One in five voters ... undecided.

"So there's lot that can change between now and next September."

Fleming also offers this caution: "It's coming out of a campaign. We have not seen the whole survey. ... You don't know what questions were asked before they asked the head-to-head questions for governor,"

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The McKee campaign was unwilling to release the full results of its own polling, but spokesman Mike Trainor said the survey showed McKee with 34%, Gorbea 27% and Magaziner with 21% in May.

(McKee, who has not yet officially announced he is running for reelection in 2022, recently hired a campaign manager: out-of-stater Brexton Isaacs.)

As for Magaziner, his campaign advisor Katie Nee said: "Internal polls should always be taken with a grain of salt. But the portions Nellie released show a wide-open race and an incumbent governor with net negative job performance."

"As far as where we are at," she said, "I’d point to the objective measures of the race: a huge fundraising advantage, the only union endorsement [from the United Nurses and Allied Professionals], dozens of elected officials."

This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: RI governor's race 2022: First numbers in from one candidate's poll