First week of early voting election numbers lagging behind 2018 totals

Election administrators aren't seeing the same "buzz" in early voting this year compared to voter enthusiasm that led to record turnout in the 2018 general election in Texas.

In the first five days of voting in El Paso County, which kicked off Monday, 42,061 ballots were cast compared to 71,252 four years ago.

If turnout doesn't surge, it could spell doom for El Pasoan Beto O'Rourke's efforts to oust Gov. Greg Abbott in the Nov. 8 general election.

The 2022 gubernatorial race is one of the most competitive in decades. O'Rourke and Abbott are now engaged in fierce efforts to get their supporters to the polls. Both have statewide "get out the vote" operations underway.

While midterm elections generally draw a smaller turnout, many had expected the wide array of important federal, state and local congressional races for congressional seats, the governorship, and four local City Council seats would have attracted much higher numbers.

More:Who's on the ballot? Meet the candidates running in the El Paso 2022 midterm election

Texas could be reverting to the normal low-turnout status for midterm elections this cycle after the high-excitement election of 2018.

"It's going okay," El Paso County Elections Administrator Lisa Wise said. "We're not seeing the numbers we saw in 2018 at this point. It's slower, but we're not having any issues; everything is running smoothly."

In previous elections, Wise noted that the county elections office is abuzz with phone calls from voters asking about the candidates and polling places and other details - that has not been the case this year.

"Sometimes it's something you can't really put your finger on," Wise said. "There's just not a buzz like we've seen in the past."

More:Early voting results in El Paso County

Wise said that the 2018 election may have been an "outlier," and this year's numbers align with what's expected in a non-presidential election.

The El Paso first-day numbers, 11,347 this cycle vs. 23,449 four years ago, could be significant because it's O'Rourke's hometown. He carried 75% of the home-county vote in his 2018 narrow loss to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz.

Most statewide polls have shown him behind this cycle in his race against Abbott.

Early turnout also dragged in Republican strongholds. For instance, in suburban Collin County, north of Dallas, the turnout was about 11,000 less than in 2018.

Following is a day-by-day comparison of this year's early voting totals in El Paso County compared to those seen in 2018:

• On Monday, the first day of early voting, 8,996 voters showed up to the polls versus 17,236 in 2018.

• On Tuesday, 9,016 voters made it to the polls compared to 15,666 in 2018.

• On Wednesday, 8,149 voters showed up to the polls versus 14,067 in 2018.

• On Thursday, 7,753 voters made it to the polls compared to 12,872 in 2018.

• On Friday, 8,147 voters showed up at the polls compared to 11,411 in 2018.

While in-person early voting is down, the number of mail-in ballots returned is slightly higher than 2018 levels, but the difference is not enough to make up for the downturn in early voting turnout.

"The mail-in ballots are still a popular program," Wise said. "That's something we're seeing here in El Paso and across the nation."

'El Paso could literally win this election'

Perhaps the most contentious race in the state is between Democratic gubernatorial candidate O'Rourke and Abbott. The two have been locked in a competitive race for several weeks and represent dramatically different visions for the state.

In earlier town hall events, O'Rourke has stressed the importance of new voters making it out to the polls. Despite lower-than-expected numbers during the first week of early voting, the El Paso native is still optimistic.

More:Poll shows the Abbott vs. O'Rourke race tightening after campaign's only debate

"I am encouraged by the people I'm seeing out," O'Rourke said, noting that he has been visiting polling places across the state. "A lot of people are turning out at these polling places, a lot of young people and first-time voters, but we need to see bigger turnout. It's the only way we can win."

For O'Rourke, the governor's race represents more than a contest between two candidates. It's about women being able to make their own decisions, it's about making sure kids are protected and safe in the classroom, it's about making sure teachers are paid enough not to need a second job, it's about expanding Medicaid, O'Rourke said.

"All of that is on the ballot and we need everyone to show up and vote for it," he said.

Regarding voter turnout this week, O'Rourke, in part, blames the restrictions placed on voters by Abbott and his Republican colleagues, who he said tried to make voting even harder last year.

More:Texas governor race: Beto O'Rourke makes push for education reform at town hall in El Paso

"We have the most restrictive election laws in the country," O'Rourke said. "So, we have to try harder, all of us as voters, to make sure we get out and cast that vote."

"El Paso could literally win this election," he continued. "There are enough voters who are eligible to decide the outcome of this race to win it. But they're not just going to show up because we hope they will; they're going to show up if we knock on their doors, they're going to show up if we talk to them about it. So, everyone has to do all they can with what they have right where they are to make sure we win. But the voters are there."

In an email, U.S. Rep. Veronica Escobar, D-El Paso, who is up against Republican Irene Armendariz-Jackson in Congressional District 16, noted that early voting numbers were significantly down among women and young people, two critical demographics for Democrats.

She likewise agreed with O'Rourke that the election is a choice between more than just two candidates.

"We are working hard to ensure voters know what is at stake in this election: the preservation of programs like social security and Medicare, climate action, the freedom for women to make their own reproductive decisions, and indeed our democracy itself," Escobar said in the email. "We won't stop working until the polls close on Election Day."

High expectations

Despite the flagging numbers, Wise is optimistic that turnout will increase as the early voting period nears its end.

"We generally see the last two days are our busiest time for early voting," Wise said. "But it's hard to know what that will look like. I think we'll definitely see improvement next week, just as we do in other years."

For her part, Wise urged voters to "be vote ready, be election ready" and encouraged people to cast ballots early to combat any unforeseen intrusion that might prevent them from venturing to the polls on Election Day.

"We always tell people that every election is important," Wise said. "This ballot has so many races that affect different levels of government, there's definitely a lot of races that will affect any voter."

"We always encourage them to vote early because you never know what might happen on Election Day," she continued. "Go out, make a plan."

Voters can view sample ballots, voting locations, and other election information at www.epcountyvotes.com.

This article originally appeared on El Paso Times: First week of El Paso early voting numbers fall behind 2018 totals