Fishing's future depends on climate change. Fishery Management Councils are gaming that

The silence was deafening for about 30 seconds before Jonathan Star put out a second invite for people to comment.

"This no one really wants to react to or think about?" he posed to the 84 stakeholders logged into the East Coast Climate Change Scenario Planning meeting Wednesday afternoon.

The silence on the bleakest scenario offered — called "Stress Fractures" — did not last long.

"The recreational community really gets hammered with this one particularly if we talk about social justice with relation to fishing," said Dave Monti, owner of No Fluke Charter and Fishing Tours in Rhode Island, a recreational fishing tour provider. "The urban fisherman really gets hammered on this."

"My comment was that the Disease bullet should also include an increase/expansion of the potential parasite load," typed Chris McDonough, a fisheries biologist with the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, in the group chat. "That may occur and potential changes in temperature regimes make it more difficult for different fish species to react positively in reducing parasite loads."

Scenario Planning

The Scenario Planning is part of a collaborative effort by the New England Fishery Management Council, Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Fisheries, South Atlantic Fishery Management Council, and Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission, to stay ahead of climate change.

"We know climate change is going to change things," Star, the event facilitator, said. "What those changes are ... We're not so sure of."

The scenario planning project attempts to game out different scenarios in the hopes that fishery managers will have some form of a game plan ahead of time.

The four scenarios — dubbed Ocean Pioneers, Stress Fractures, Seafood Lemonade, Checks and Balances — were concocted at a previous meeting in June.

The scenarios are still in the process of being fully formulated through meetings such as this one held on Wednesday.

Ocean Pioneers

Ocean Pioneers assumes a world with unpredictable oceanic weather patterns. Despite this, "the ocean is resilient — no damaging tipping points."

While the weather makes fishing dangerous, there are still opportunities for some operators, yet the number of new fishermen entering the industry shrink.

In terms of the science, the scenario assumes a world where its ability to assess stocks and predict migratory patterns is limited.

"As we get migration and changes in biomass I think the people actually fishing will have more of a sense of that and we'll have more ways to incorporate that data into the science," said Greg Vespe, president of the Rhode Island Saltwater Anglers Association, in his critique of the scenario. "As they shift: Where are the spawning grounds going to be?"

Kristin Uiterwyk, the director of the Urban Harbors Institute at the University of Massachusetts Boston, noted that though the scenario viewed the plane as advantageous to entrepreneurs, it did not take into account what might happen to the seaside economy beyond the sailing deck.

"It's useful to think about what an unpredictable fishery might mean for the working waterfront," she said. "I think we could anticipate that maintaining space for commercial fishing will be a challenge if the fishing industry struggles to bring in new players."

Stress Fractures

In this world, science is unable to keep up with changes in the oceans, which are radical. Species range changes with some stocks becoming critical, if not extinct.

As far as coastal habitats are concerned, the increase in strength and frequency of storm systems combined with an increase in coastal population leads to the destruction of estuaries and other coastal ecosystems.

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The low availability of traditional fishing stocks leads to reduced opportunity in the industry and science is unable to keep up with the rate of change.

In this scenario, the participants believed that government intervention would become necessary for industry survival.

Seafood Lemonade

In this scenario, "the science is good, but the news is bad."

Ecological conditions drive range movement without much expansion and dwindling fish stocks.

Yet due to scientific ability, effective management is able to establish replenishing stocks. In regions without effective management, fleets are consolidated and fishing communities go into decline.

Fishing in the U.S. is further hit by cheaper imports from abroad and many historical fishing communities go into decline and aquaculture picks up the slack for declining fisheries.

"What I really like about this scenario is that it pulled out situations in which the fishing community maybe prevailed," said Pamela Lyons Gromen, executive director of Wild Oceans, a conservation group. "I think it's important to pull out these attributes of being resilient in these scenarios."

Michelle Duval, a member of the Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council, pointed out  one blind spot in the scenario.

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"One thing that sort of sticks out is fishermen struggling to establish this marketing of locally sourced fish because there's still popular fish available through import," she said. "Globally we'd be seeing decreases in those other popular fish as well. It's going to be just as hard for other nations around the globe."

Checks and Balances

The final scenario is the rosiest and features a world where both science and nature are resilient. Stocks are able to adapt to changing climactic conditions as are fishing communities.

In this world, carbon emissions and pollution have been reduced, disease is present in a limited number of stocks; which have expanded ranges northward and eastward. In addition, coastal wealth contributes to a robust recreational fishing industry.

"This may well be one we want to look at again," Star said in response to a critique of the perceived optimism of the projection. "This really may be stretching the bounds of plausibility."

Monti, for his part, voiced concern that recreational fishermen and wealth were conflated in this scenario, since many are not wealthy.

"I don't understand the connection between coastal wealth and fishing," he said. "I'm a little concerned about that."

The next scenario planning meeting will take place Tuesday at 10 a.m. on Zoom.

Contact Kevin G. Andrade at kandrade@s-t.com and follow him on Twitter: @KevinGAndrade. Support local journalism and subscribe to the Standard-Times today!

This article originally appeared on Standard-Times: Fishing's future depends on climate change.