Five bold predictions and game-by-game picks for Kansas State’s 2023 football season

The Kansas State football team is usually overlooked and undervalued at this time of year.

In a conference that is ruled by Oklahoma and Texas, it’s rare to find much preseason love for the Wildcats. Even when expectations are high, few are normally willing to grab a bullhorn and scream that K-State is about to win a Big 12 championship.

But these are not normal times. As defending Big 12 champs, the Wildcats enter the 2023 season with more swagger than usual. Some might say a target is now on their backs. They have gone from “hunter” to hunted.”

How will K-State handle such a change? Good question. The last two times it won a Big 12 championship things didn’t go so well the following season.

The Cats stumbled to a disastrous 4-7 record in 2004 and later went 8-5 in 2013. But both of those campaigns came under Bill Snyder. Things could be much different with Chris Klieman at the helm. You may remember he successfully defended two FCS championships when he was at North Dakota State.

Which way will the Wildcats go this year? There’s no better time to make a few predictions.

Here are five bold predictions for K-State’s upcoming season and game-by-game picks.

1. K-State will beat its over/under wins total

I’m going to start this year’s predictions column the same way I did last August. That’s right, I am once again endorsing the over on Kansas State’s preseason win total.

The oddsmakers got this number exactly right when it initially came out at 8 1/2. Every time I look at the Wildcats’ schedule I debate between eight or nine victories. But pessimistic bettors have driven the total down to 7 1/2 at some books. Odds are good that K-State will beat that number.

Yes, the Wildcats won’t have Deuce Vaughn or Felix Anudike-Uzomah this season, but they do return their starting quarterback (Will Howard), offensive coordinator (Collin Klein), defensive coordinator (Joe Klanderman) and head coach (Chris Klieman). That is usually a winning formula in college football.

The Wildcats have won at least eight games in every non-COVID season under Klieman. If this team stays healthy, it should happen again. Many fans would consider 8-4 a disappointment for this team. But the beauty of this bet is that even a “meh” season would be good enough to win you money.

2. The Wildcats won’t return to the Big 12 title game

We got started with a positive prediction. Now let’s go the other way.

I don’t think the Wildcats will finish in the top two of the Big 12 standings this season, which means they will miss out on a return trip to Arlington, Texas for the conference championship game. K-State fans can throw tomatoes at me if they must, but I have my reasons.

For starters, Oklahoma is the only team that has appeared in consecutive Big 12 championship games since it was resurrected in 2017. And no team has made back-to-back appearances over the past two years. The Big 12 promotes parity. This season will be no different.

Texas is the runaway favorite to win the league. Oklahoma won the schedule lottery on its way out of the conference. Texas Tech seems ready to make a big jump forward. Oklahoma State and TCU are always threats. K-State will likely need a 7-2 conference record to make it back to AT&T Stadium. That seems like too much to ask from a team that just lost four players to the NFL Draft.

3. New touchdown leaders in rushes and receptions

Without Adrian Martinez (10 rushing touchdowns) and Kade Warner (five receiving touchdowns), the Wildcats must look to new sources for points this season. They need to replace both of their touchdown leaders.

Who will step into their shoes? K-State has several options in both categories, but that won’t stop me from projecting two names here. I expect tight end Ben Sinnott to lead the team in receiving touchdowns and D.J. Giddens to lead the way in rushing touchdowns.

Sinnott caught four touchdowns last season, and his rapport with Howard is only going to grow. Howard loves to throw passes across the middle. Sinnott is one of his best friends. You do the math.

When it comes to rushing, Giddens should do the most damage. He is a bruising runner who excels in short-yardage situations. That should give him an edge over fellow running back Treshaun Ward and Howard, who only rushed for three touchdowns a year ago.

4. Will Howard will flirt with 3,000 passing yards

Only two quarterbacks in K-State history have eclipsed 3,000 yards in a season. Jake Waters accomplished the feat with 3,501 yards in 2014. Josh Freeman also got there with 3,353 yards in 2007.

That’s it. That’s the list.

I’m not bold enough to predict that Howard will absolutely join that duo as a third amigo, but it is certainly within reach.

Howard averaged 233.3 passing yards per game last season. But he only played in seven games. Now that he is the full-time starter, he could easily deliver one of the best statistical seasons in school history. His offensive coordinator likes to throw the ball and push the pace. It’s not hard to see him maintaining, or improving, on his previous numbers.

If he continues to average 233.3 passing yards and the Wildcats qualify for a bowl game, he will finish with 3,032 yards. If K-State goes against my pick and reaches the Big 12 championship, he will be looking at 3,265 yards. He will need to stay healthy to put up huge numbers, but that has never been a concern for him and his large body in Manhattan.

This might be a good time to recommend a bet on his passing yardage over, which is set at 2,635.5 at FanDuel.

5. Cooper Beebe will win the Outland Trophy

If he played a more prominent position we might be talking about Cooper Beebe as Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year or even a Heisman Trophy candidate. That’s how good the senior offensive lineman from Kansas City has been and will continue to be for the Wildcats.

Alas, he will have to settle for an award that goes to the nation’s best interior lineman. At the very least, he figures to be among the finalists. He is the best player on the K-State roster. He is the best blocker in the conference. He is a potential first-round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Enjoy him while you can, K-State fans.

Now, let’s move on to game-by-game picks. My final record projection has been exactly right in each of the past two seasons.

2023 schedule and game-by-game predictions

Sept. 2 vs. SEMO (6 p.m. on ESPN+): The Redhawks were a quality FCS team last season. They won nine games, finished first in the Ohio Valley Conference and qualified for the FCS playoffs. They also lost their opener at Iowa State 42-10. Few coaches are better at demolishing FCS opponents than Klieman. Expect a similar score in Week 1. K-State 48, SEMO 13.

Sept. 9 vs. Troy (11 a.m. on FS1): Last year, K-State hosted the best Group of Five team in the country and lost to Tulane. This year, it has another quality team from outside the power conferences lined up for an early game in Manhattan. Troy won 12 games last season, including victories in the Sun Belt championship and then the Cure Bowl. The Trojans are particularly salty on defense and should provide a challenging test for the Wildcats. But I don’t see K-State losing again in this spot. K-State 24, Troy 17.

Sept. 16 at Missouri (11 a.m. on SEC Network): No one saw a blowout coming when K-State played Missouri last season, but the Wildcats were clearly motivated for the game and won going away 40-12. I don’t expect things to be quite so easy in the rematch. The Tigers should be motivated and out for revenge. Still, there is a reason why Eli Drinkwitz has never won more than six games during a season at Mizzou. K-State 33, Missouri 28.

Sept. 23 vs. UCF: Good as Klieman has been in Manhattan, his teams have developed a bad habit of losing at home as significant favorites. It happened last season against Tulane, in 2020 against Arkansas State and in 2019 against West Virginia. I could see that trend continuing when the Knights come to town for their first conference game as a Big 12 team. UCF is a new and capable opponent that could upset the Wildcats if they don’t play their best. UCF 30, K-State 27.

Oct. 6 at Oklahoma State: Here’s another thing you should know about Klieman. His teams also tend to win games when few expect much of them. The Wildcats have won 11 games as underdogs under Klieman, including three memorable wins over Oklahoma. Some will be looking to jump off the K-State bandwagon if it loses to UCF, especially going on the road against a team it hasn’t beaten in Stillwater since 2017. But that would be foolish, as this would be a classic bounce-back spot for the Wildcats.. K-State 40, Oklahoma State 30.

Oct. 14 at Texas Tech: Don’t be surprised if the Red Raiders contend for a Big 12 championship this season. Texas Tech won its final four games last season and enters 2023 with lots of momentum and talent. Winning back-to-back road games is never easy in the Big 12, especially when the second one comes against one of the best teams in the league. This seems like a loss for the Wildcats. Texas Tech 35, K-State 21.

Oct. 21 vs. TCU: These teams played two highly entertaining games last season, with TCU rallying from a big halftime deficit to win at home and K-State delivering a goal-line stand to win the Big 12 championship game in overtime. Here’s hoping Round 3 is just as good. Alas, there are many reasons to question if TCU can duplicate its success from last season. K-State 42, TCU 24.

Oct. 28 vs. Houston: The Cougars will struggle as they adjust to their new home in the Big 12. This might be the Wildcats’ easiest conference game on the schedule. Perhaps offensive coordinator Collin Klein will finally get his team to 50 points. K-State 55, Houston 27.

Nov. 4 at Texas: There was a time when K-State fans loved to chant “We own Texas” whenever the Wildcats beat the Longhorns. Those days feel like a long time ago. Texas has done the “owning” in this series of late. The Longhorns haven’t lost to the Wildcats since 2016. For whatever reason, their roster of highly recruited players is usually too much for K-State to handle. Expect Texas to continue the winning streak this season. Texas 35, K-State 28.

Nov. 11 vs. Baylor: The Wildcats unexpectedly hammered the Bears in Waco last season. Will it happen again? Don’t be surprised if it does. For many reasons, K-State is a bad matchup for Baylor and the Bears won’t have enough firepower to keep up on the road. K-State 34, Baylor 17.

Nov. 18 at Kansas: This could be the best Sunflower Showdown we have seen on the football field in quite some time. The Wildcats beat the Jayhawks 47-27 in Manhattan last season, but K-State benefited from several costly errors by KU in that game. Things could tighten up significantly as this series shifts to Lawrence and KU returns more starters than any other team in the Big 12. Then again, beating KU is what K-State does. The Wildcats haven’t lost in this series since 2008. K-State 38, Kansas 33.

Nov. 25 vs. Iowa State: It’s hard to expect good things from the Cyclones this season as their roster is currently engulfed in a gambling scandal. Give me the Wildcats in a low-scoring affair. K-State 24, Iowa State 7.

Final Record: 9-3 (6-3 Big 12).