Five counties that could decide KY governor election

In 2019, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear beat incumbent Republican Matt Bevin by the thinnest of margins, largely by claiming a handful of counties by similarly thin margins. They were, essentially, the bellwether counties among Kentucky’s 120.

This year, in Beshear’s race against GOP candidate Attorney General Daniel Cameron, experts and the candidates themselves will be tracking results in a few of the same counties, as well as some strategic others that will likely be close.

Here are five counties to watch.

Kenton

The Kenton County seat of Covington is undoubtedly progressive.

Across the Ohio River from Cincinnati, Covington shares much of the same character of the Democratic-led Queen City on the other side of the Roebling Suspension Bridge.

But much of the suburban and rural area south of Covington are quite Republican. In 2015, Bevin coasted to victory in the county by close to 6,000 votes. In 2019, he lost it by more than 500 votes – a shift greater than Beshear’s margin of victory in the entire state.

In 2019, Beshear won the heart of Covington with around 80% of the vote there. Southern portions of the city were far less decisive, and Bevin won such suburban outposts as Independence and Edgewood by moderately healthy margins while Beshear won the suburb of Erlanger.

Republicans in the county have taken heart in extinguishing Democratic presence at the state level when Rep. Stephanie Dietz, R-Edgewood defeated former state representative and Covington political mainstay Buddy Wheatley in 2022.

However, Wheatley’s presence on the down-ballot ticket could help lift turnout for Beshear.

Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats there 66,620 to 53,244.

Madison

Madison County is changing.

As one of the fastest growing counties in the commonwealth, with potential for huge growth on the horizon, the county that’s home to Richmond and Berea is gearing up for more residents and businesses.

It’s also becoming more and more Republican by the month according to registration statistics, and Democrats have become all but extinct in county-wide elected office.

In the midst of all this change, the county has recently tracked among the closest with statewide results of any in the state. Pulled in opposite directions by college communities in Richmond and Berea and a large rural presence in the county, the county went for Beshear by 0.3 percentage points in 2019.

Registered Republicans only recently overtook the number of Democrats in Madison County, but they have surged in numbers, 36,147 to 29,557.

Daviess

Daviess County, home of Owensboro, is not traditionally seen as a battleground area. After all, Bevin beat Beshear in the county by close to four percentage points.

However, some Democrats see an opening to continue to make inroads in such suburban communities as Daviess County.

Nationally, suburbs have trended blue since the era of former GOP president Donald Trump. Democrats hope that the momentum there, and Beshear’s moderate appeal, could sway things in the home of the late Democratic U.S. Sen. Wendell Ford.

Registered Democrats still slightly outnumber Republicans, 35,778 to 34,649.

Knott

Did Beshear’s role in leading disaster recovery efforts work to his political benefit in Eastern Kentucky?

That’s been the subject of much speculation and Herald-Leader coverage in the lead-up to this year’s election.

If there’s a single county to watch of the many that were affected by historic and deadly flooding in the summer of 2022, it’s probably Knott County, which Beshear won by just one point in 2019.

Conventional wisdom among Kentucky political observers is that the traditionally solid-blue swaths of Eastern Kentucky will continue to shift toward Republicans over time.

However, if Knott goes for Beshear again, it could prove that his actions during the flood, and subsequent political messaging, put a dent in that trend.

Though people there are generally conservative, registered Democrats greatly outnumber Republicans 7,896 to 2,395.

Warren

Like Kenton County, the 2022 statehouse elections shut out any Democrats from representing Warren County, a hub of growth in south-central Kentucky.

However, Warren played a central role in Beshear’s 2019 victory, as he claimed the county by more than three percentage points.

Recent economic development announcements, including a new electric vehicle battery plant there, have been touted by the Beshear administration and campaign.

Working in Republicans’ favor is the fact that Bevin’s relationship with local Republican-led government officials there was strained, potentially leading to abnormally depressed GOP turnout. Cameron doesn’t have that problem, and he’s got plenty of elected surrogates there to help gin up Republican support.

There are slightly more registered Republicans than Democrats in Warren County, 41,657 to 40,191.