Five Knox County Republicans voted to expel legislators. One could pay the political cost.

When Knox County's five Republican state representatives voted to expel three Democratic lawmakers from the Tennessee House of Representatives on April 6, including a fellow Knox Countian, local Democrats started calculating whether they could translate outrage into action to pick off a seat.

One seat caught their eyes immediately: District 18, held by Rep. Elaine Davis. And it's not only Democrats who think the first-termer might be vulnerable.

Knox News analyzed election data and spoke with Democratic and Republican party officials and experts to put the district’s future into perspective.

Setting the table

The five Knox County Republicans turned heads when they voted to oust Knoxville Democrat Gloria Johnson in addition to Justin Jones of Nashville and Justin Pearson of Memphis. She won her district, after all, with nearly 58% of the votes.

The GOP was angry that Johnson, Jones and Pearson briefly interrupted House proceedings March 30 to demand action on gun control three days after three 9-year-olds and three adults were gunned down at The Covenant School shooting in Nashville.

Davis was joined by Knox County Reps. Michele Carringer, Justin Lafferty, Dave Wright and Jason Zachary in casting votes to expel all three Democrats for their 'disorderly' demonstration in the House chamber. Their votes came three days after Lafferty snatched Jones' phone from his hand on the House floor, but faced no disciplinary action.

The Nashville Council on April 10 overwhelmingly voted Jones back into the District 52 House seat as an interim representative until a special election can be held to permanently fill the position. A meeting to consider the reappointment of Pearson by the Shelby County Commission is scheduled for April 12. Both Jones and Pearson are eligible to run for reelection.

What Republicans are saying

Mike Arms, a well-connected political consultant who runs a firm with former Knox County Mayor Mike Ragsdale, said he’s trying to tell moderate Republicans they need to wake up.

“I think we've motivated Democrats,” Arms told Knox News. “We've motivated younger voters who don't see this as following a democratic process, and I think we'll have some independents who will sway left because of this."

Knox County Republican Party Chairman Buddy Burkhardt said he thinks his members will be fine in the next election in 2024, but he would’ve liked to see a different outcome to the expulsion votes.

“I don’t think the Republican Party did itself any favors by going with expulsion over censure,” Burkhardt told Knox News. “I don’t think any of our people are in danger because of this, but I think they’re going to have to go a long way to explain why they did what they did.”

What to know about District 18

Davis easily won the seat last fall over Democrat Gregory Kaplan, 54% to 46%, and it has always been in Republican hands. Most recently it was held for a single cycle by moderate businessman Eddie Mannis and before that it was held for multiple cycles by Martin Daniel.

Before the district was redrawn last year, it was mostly a compact district in western Knox County that straddled the city and county line. But it was redrawn before the 2022 election and now includes parts of the former district while also picking up Sequoyah Hills – which is newly blue – and portions of south Knoxville and South Knox County that vote Republican.

Why District 18 could be flipped

The district has many of the signs of a changing electorate – so much so that Knox County Democratic Party Chair Matt Shears said he expects the district to go blue in the next few elections because it fits the pattern: suburban voters along the I-40 corridor.

First it was Sequoyah Hills, Shears said, and then it was Bearden and West Hills.

“The suburban shift is happening along the I-40 corridor and District 18 has a lot of the I-40 corridor,” Shears told Knox News. “Suburban voters are not resonating with the radical Republican message … there are a lot of former Republicans or independents who won’t say they’re Democrats who are a dedicated straight-blue voter."

Jack Vaughn, a Democratic State Executive Committee member and a Knox County Democratic Party field organizer, also is an expert in election data. He said white college-aged voters are turning the tide for Democrats in South Knoxville and parts of West Knoxville.

Still, he said, the party had thought the redrawn District 18 would continue to elect Republican candidates. That thinking has changed.

“I would credit the shifts like we’ve seen the last eight years and I’d credit candidate quality,” he said. “Eddie Mannis got a lot of moderate support and had some Democrats support him. But Elaine Davis had none of that, and Gregory Kaplan got some Republican moderates to vote for him.”

For Shears, it’s a matter of when, not if District 18 flips in the next 10 years. “Demographics show that.”

Why District 18 isn't likely to flip

Davis won key parts of the district handily, including South Knox County, which remains deep red. Davis won the precinct that includes South Doyle High School with more than 70% of the vote.

Beyond that, it’s just hard to know without getting a true sense of the new district, said Janet Testerman, the Knoxville city council member Davis beat in the District 18 Republican primary last fall.

“When it was redrawn after the Census, I think the summary of that was it was redrawn to be more red than it potentially was,” Testerman said. “But again, I think it’s hard to say the potential of any district because of such low voter turnout.”

Burkhardt, the Republican Party chairman, said he’s focused on the future more than the events of the past weeks.

“That’s why the windshield is bigger than the rearview mirror,” he said.

Davis keeps drawing fire from Knox County

Davis has proposed two bills that were roundly criticized and that could make her a target for Democratic hopefuls. Both proposals carried serious local implications, including seizing local control over how elections are conducted.

The first was her move to restrict early voting, which she withdrew (interestingly, limiting early voting likely would hurt Davis, who received 54% of early voting in her district, roughly the same margin of victory in her district as a whole).

The second was a proposal to do away with the Knoxville City Council’s unique voting system, which some have said leaves an opportunity for white voters to veto the wishes of a majority-Black district. Davis made that proposal without consulting with local leaders, who banded together to lobby in Nashville against the bill and sharply criticized stripping decision making from local voters.

Tyler Whetstone is a Knox News investigative reporter focused on accountability journalism. Email tyler.whetstone@knoxnews.com. Twitter @tyler_whetstone.

Areena Arora, data and investigative reporter for Knox News, can be reached by email at areena.arora@knoxnews.com. Follow her on Twitter @AreenaArora.

This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Democrats size up Davis' seat after she voted to expel lawmakers