Five questions to be answered by the 2023 Kentucky Derby

Editor’s note: Kentucky Derby favorite Forte was scratched from the race Saturday morning after this article was originally published.

Getting right to the point, the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby has a 6:57 p.m. post time Saturday at Churchill Downs. NBC has the coverage. Only then, will all our questions be answered.

Here are five:

1. Is Forte for real?

Thursday night’s rumor mill had Forte joining the long list of scratched from Kentucky Derby 149. Friday morning, trainer Todd Pletcher squelched the rumors, saying that the former champion 2-year-old and Florida Derby winner as a 3-year-old was good to go for the 2023 Kentucky Derby.

Still, the morning line favorite has a long line of skeptics. Yes, Forte has won five straight graded stakes, four of them Grade 1 stakes. But his Beyer Speed figures have regressed from his 100 in winning the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year at Keeneland last year, to 98 in this year’s Grade 2 Fountain of Youth to 95 in his heart-stopping triumph in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.

Skeptics also wonder about Forte’s closing running style. Is there enough speed in this particular Derby to make that work? The last Kentucky Derby winner with a similar style was Orb in 2013.

2. Can Brad Cox cross the finish line first?

Two-time Eclipse Award winning trainer Brad Cox won the Kentucky Derby — the first Louisville native to do so — when Mandaloun was awarded the 2021 victory after first-place finisher Medina Spirit tested positive for a substance banned on race day.

Cox would much rather win the race outright and he has a quartet of contenders this time around. Angel of Empire is the most accomplished. He’s coming off an Arkansas Derby win. Verifying and Hit Show were runners-up in their last Derby preps — Verifying second in the Blue Grass; Hit Show second in the Wood Memorial. And Jace’s Road was third in the Louisiana Derby.

In fact, with respect to trainers, this Kentucky Derby sets up as a battle between two of the best — Cox with his four runners vs. Pletcher with his three.

3. Who is the best Japanese horse?

The Japanese-bred Derma Sotogake turned heads with his impressive win in the UAE Derby. The 3-year-old has excellent breeding and a well-worn passport. He raced in Japan on Dec. 14 last year, then Saudi Arabia on Feb. 23 and the United Arab Emirates on March 25.

But Mandarin Hero might be the better Japanese-bred of the two. He’s won four of his six career starts and has an impressive race on American soil on his resume. On April 8, Mandarin Hero lost by just a nose to Practical Move in the Santa Anita Derby. The colt received a 100 Beyer Speed Figure for his effort.

This could be the year a Japanese horse win’s America’s greatest race. But which one?

4. What do we make of Two Phil’s?

Which of this year’s Derby entrants has posted the highest Beyer Speed Figure? Florida Derby winner Forte? Blue Grass Stakes winner Tapit Trice? Arkansas Derby winner Angel of Empire? Louisiana Derby winner Kingsbarns? Nope.

The answer is Two Phil’s, who posted a 101 Beyer while winning the Jeff Ruby Steaks on March 25 at Turfway Park. It was an impressive performance for the colt trained by Larry Rivelli. Before that, Two Phil’s had never run higher than an 88. He had finished second in the Grade 3 Lecomte and third in the Grade 2 Risen Star before coming to Northern Kentucky.

Here’s the thing: Two Phil’s JR Steaks win came on a synthetic surface. Was the performance a product of the track? And can that translate over to the dirt at Churchill Downs?

Well, Two Phil’s does have a win at Churchill. He captured the Grade 3 Street Sense by 5 1/4 lengths at the Downs last Oct. 30. That win came on a sloppy track.

5. Is Confidence Game the ‘it’ horse of this Derby?

Trained by Keith Desormeaux, Confidence Game has not raced since winning the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes on a sloppy track at Oaklawn on Feb. 25.

But the son of Candy Ride has looked dynamite over the last two weeks at Churchill. He turned in a bullet work of 59 seconds over five furlongs last Saturday that had veteran Derby followers buzzing.

When asked afterward which horses he was concerned about in the race, jockey James Graham said, “They have to be concerned about me.”

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