Five reasons for Miami Dolphins optimism — but 5 more for concern — as the games begin | Opinion

The Miami Dolphins might be the Super Bowl contender nobody is talking about. They also might be the third-best team in their own four-team division.

Some experts say the Dolphins are top-five elite in the NFL in terms of overall talent. The betting odds say there are at least five teams better in the AFC alone.

The question left to answer: Which are greater? The strengths that earn the optimism? Or the concerns that bring the doubts?

Hear are the five big reasons for high hopes, and also the five reasons for concern as the games begin with Friday’s preseason opener:

▪ Five glowing embers to build a bonfire of roaring optimism:

1. Vic Fangio, new defensive coordinator: He has a name straight out of central casting for a sequel to “Goodfellas.” He has an acumen for stopping the other team that is second to none in NFL coaching. The Dolphins defense had been an all-out blitzkrieg. The new scheme is less risky and more strategic, designed to disguise and confuse. And the accomplished veteran maestro agreed to take the job because he knows he was inheriting the the player talent sufficient to make it work. Miami should go from a mid-pack defense to among the elite.

2. Tua Tagovailoa (the good) :-The quarterback was shades of really good to top-tier great when healthy last season, finally showing why Miami chose to draft him ahead of Justin Herbert. Miami committed to Tagovailoa in the offseason by picking up his fifth-year option through 2024, but the coming season will tell, hinging on his health, whether next offseason will see Tagovailoa getting a long-term megacontract or see the Fins maybe moving on from him if the concussions repeat.

3. Hill and Waddle : Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are for Tagovailoa no less than what Mark Clayton and Mark Duper were for Dan Marino way back in the day. Hill, “the Cheetah,” is teasing that this year he will be the first receiver to top 2,000 yards in a season. Waddle last year averaged an explosive 18.1 yards per catch, even more than Hill. And third option Cedrick Wilson Jr. or Robbie Chosen (nee Anderson) will be the beneficiary of attention demanded by Hill and Waddle.

4. The rise of the Two J’s: Ascending third-year defensive starters free safety Jevon Holland and outside linebacker Jaelan Phillips (the former Miami Hurricane) are poised to have breakout seasons and become Pro Bowl-good on a defense with playmakers at all three levels. Holland and Phillips are two 2021 early draft picks who are hitting really big for general manager Chris Grier, the once-criticized personnel boss now on a bit of a roll.

5. Law of averages?: Few teams are “due” like Miami is due — or better poised to make it happen. Fins are coming off three straight winning seasons for the first time in 20 years. They lost their playoff game at Buffalo by only 34-31 with a backup rookie QB. ESPN analyst Mina Kimes says Miami has one of the NFL’s top five rosters for overall talent. It feels like, well, like it’s finally time?

▪ Five threats of rain to dampen those leaping flames of hope:

1. It should be illegal how scary strong the AFC is : The Dolphins look really good but still are in a second-tier pack behind reigning champion Kansas City, Cincinnati and their own division’s Buffalo. BetMGM.com’s Super Bowl odds for the AFC have it Kansas City, Buffalo, Cincy, the New York Jets and Baltimore, in that order — then Miami tied for sixth with the L.A. Chargers. You read it right. The money says the Fins are third of four in the AFC East.

2. Tua Tagovailoa (the bad) : His injury history dates to college, and last year saw him miss five games with concussions, leading him to ponder retirement during the offseason. The possibility of a recurrence cannot be understated; neither can the importance of his health to this season. That s magnified because Miami has gambled with his backups, with unproven Mike White and the inexperienced Thompson. Failing to sign a proven veteran backup (such as Andy Dalton) could explode on Miami should Tagovailoa go missing for health reasons again.

3. The Jalen Ramsey injury : The elite lockdown cornerback was the team’s big offseason add — to the defense what Hill was to the offense last year — but his training camp knee injury will see him sidelined likely until December. That’s most of the season. Means he will miss games against Herbert, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Rodgers among others. Xavien Howard is still solid and they added Eli Apple, but Ramsey’s lengthy absence leaves a crater.

4. Offensive line doubts: Terron Armstead made the Pro Bowl and at 32 remains solid if they can keep him on on the field. Connor Williams has been strong and Robert Hunt is pretty good. But right tackle Austin Jackson and especially left guard Liam Eichenberg are shaky starters. Helmet technology and offseason jiu-jitsu may help Tagovailoa avoid concussions. But a consistently strong O-line would help more. Miami did not yield a ton of sacks last year because they schemed Tagovailoa for quick releases to avoid them, but wish Fins had put more offseason emphasis on shoring up issues on the blocking front.

5. Pass/run imbalance: Starting running back Raheem Mostert ran for 891 yards with a strong 4.9 average last season. He isn’t the problem. Star free agent Dalvin Cook is available. But he isn’t the solution. The answer is better balance on offense. Miami had the seventh-most imbalance with the ball last season, running only 38 percent of the time. More consistent attention and commitment to the run will further open up the passing game and alleviate pressure on Tagovailoa.

So the question again: How much do the strengths that earn the optimism outweigh the concerns that bring the doubts?

After a trio of dress-rehearsal games this month starting Friday night, the real finding out begins September 10.