Five things to watch for as candidate filing for the 2024 elections gets underway

Many races on the ballot next year have already started to take shape, but over the next two weeks, the field of candidates running for everything from governor and attorney general to legislative seats that will determine the balance of power in the General Assembly will be finalized.

Candidate filing for most 2024 election contests begins at noon Monday, and will end at noon on Friday, Dec. 15. Over this two-week period, every candidate running for federal, statewide, legislative and local office in North Carolina has to file with state or county election boards.

Those contests include: all 14 of the state’s congressional seats; the governor’s race, the attorney general’s race, eight other statewide races including lieutenant governor, state auditor, and state treasurer; a seat on the N.C. Supreme Court and three on the N.C. Court of Appeals; all 170 state House and Senate races; and several other local races across the state.

While many candidates have already announced and begun campaigning months before filing starts, the process can yield some unexpected, last-minute candidacies. It also confirms which rumored plans ended up materializing, and which didn’t.

Here are five things to watch for this year.

Open races in the General Assembly

Between some state lawmakers opting to run for other offices, and others deciding to retire, there will be several open races without an incumbent next year.

Rep. Jon Hardister, a Republican from Guilford County, is running for labor commissioner. GOP Rep. Jeffrey Elmore of Wilkes County is running for lieutenant governor, as is Democratic Sen. Rachel Hunt of Mecklenburg County.

GOP Rep. John Bradford and Democratic Rep. Wesley Harris, both of Mecklenburg County, are running for state treasurer, leaving their seats open.

House Speaker Tim Moore, meanwhile, is running for Congress from the state’s 14th district, vacating his Cleveland County seat after spending nearly two decades in the legislature.

And Democratic Rep. Caleb Rudow of Buncombe County is running for Congress from the 11th district.

Rep. John Autry, a Mecklenburg Democrat, and GOP Reps. Kristin Baker of Cabarrus County and John Faircloth of Guilford County have all decided not to seek reelection, leaving their seats open next year, too.

Most recently, Sen. Dean Proctor, a Catawba County Republican, announced he was retiring as well.

As filing gets underway, that list is likely to grow.

Will swing Democrats face any primary challengers?

Frustrations in the Democratic Party with a small group of House Democrats who frequently voted with the GOP, started before Republicans regained a supermajority with the party switch of Rep. Tricia Cotham, and grew over the course of the year.

In September, five House Democrats who broke ranks with the rest of their party and voted for the Republican budget faced strong criticism from within their party, and in particular, from youth leaders in the party, who said they should “start acting like Democrats,” and indicated that they could face primary challenges next year.

Last month, one of those groups, the Young Democrats of North Carolina, took the additional step of launching a fund to raise money to support potential primary challengers against certain sitting Democrats.

What about GOP Senate leader Phil Berger?

The Republican proposal this summer to approve four new casinos in North Carolina, which was ultimately shelved after it failed to gain enough support in the House, could become a campaign issue, particularly as Senate leader Phil Berger, the legislation’s chief proponent, says that it could be reconsidered during next year’s legislative short session.

Last week, Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page, a vocal critic of the casino proposal, told The News & Observer that a poll requested by an anonymous group showing him leading Berger by a substantial margin among Triad Republicans had encouraged him to consider launching a primary challenge against the GOP leader.

Asked about it last week, Berger said he felt it’s “generally unwise to put any credence in an anonymous poll,” and said he hasn’t received a reception from constituents in his district that would make him think the polling was even remotely accurate.

In congressional races, it’s decision time for Democrats

Democratic Reps. Kathy Manning and Wiley Nickel were drawn into districts that are distinctly Republican. Neither has declared their plans for 2024, but the next two weeks will solidify whether they fight for their seats or give up.

Rep. Don Davis, who represents North Carolina’s far northeastern counties, was drawn into the state’s only swing district, covering an area that both parties have won. He has not announced a run, but in October he tweeted a plea for money to help him win “our #NC01 race.”

Republicans including former Rep. Mark Walker and High Point Mayor Jay Wagner join a legion of Republicans vying for Manning’s Triad-based seat that is now primed for a Republican.

Nickel, of Cary, didn’t live in his Triangle-based district in the first place. Nickel lives in Rep. Deborah Ross’ nearby district, but on the border of Rep. Valerie Foushee’s, who lives in Orange County. Both Foushee and Ross remain in Democratic seats, and Nickel hasn’t said if he will take one of them on, run again for his own seat or walk away altogether.

In Nickel’s reconfigured district, Republicans like Brad Knott and Fred Von Canon have already cleared state Rep. Erin Paré from the field.

Both Reps. Jeff Jackson, a Democrat from Charlotte, and Dan Bishop, a Republican from Waxhaw, are leaving Capitol Hill to take a run at state attorney general. Bishop is leaving on his own accord, but Jackson was another Democrat drawn into a Republican district.

Moore, a Republican from Kings Mountain, is vying to take Jackson’s seat. But he’s in for a tough race with Pat Harrigan, a military veteran and gun manufacturer.

Then there’s Reps. Patrick McHenry, a Republican from Denver, and Richard Hudson, a Republican from Southern Pines, who have made names for themselves within the party. Hudson leads the National Republican Congressional Committee and McHenry served for three weeks as interim House speaker after party infighting left the chamber without a leader. So far no one has tried to challenge either, but it’s anyone’s guess what the next two weeks might show.

Will last-minute legal challenges delay filing?

Even though filing is slated to start Monday and continue through the end of next week, the entire process could be disrupted or delayed if litigation challenging new electoral maps comes before a sympathetic judge.

One lawsuit has already been filed, which argues that the new state Senate map illegally dilutes the voting power of Black residents in Eastern North Carolina. The judge in that case declined a request for an expedited schedule, meaning he likely won’t decide whether to block the maps before filing ends.

However, more lawsuits are expected to come, which could challenge the state’s new congressional or House maps.

If a judge decides to grant an injunction blocking the maps before filing begins or while it is still ongoing, the process would likely be delayed, at least for the candidates running in disputed maps.

This happened in 2021, when the state Supreme Court halted candidate filing and delayed the state’s primary election in response to gerrymandering lawsuits.