Five things we're watching for on Election Day in Iowa
Tuesday is Election Day, and Iowa voters will finish casting ballots for races that will determine the direction of the state for years to come.
Typically the party that controls the White House performs worse in midterm elections, and Iowa Republicans are working to capitalize on frustration over the economy. But Democrats hope enthusiasm and anger around issues like abortion rights will help drive turnout on their side.
Here’s what we’re watching for as results come in.
What does turnout look like?
Iowa’s early voting numbers this year have significantly lagged behind 2018 and 2014, the last two times the state had a governor’s race on the ballot.
Some county auditors said the state’s new voting rules are confusing voters. Last year, the Republican-led Iowa Legislature passed sweeping changes to Iowa’s election laws that shortened the early voting period from 29 days to 20, moved up the deadline to request an absentee ballot and required all absentee ballots to be received by county auditors by the time polls close Tuesday.
More:2022 Iowa Election Results
Other election officials said state parties and candidates aren’t pushing early voting as strongly or aren’t inspiring voters to get out and vote.
The big question mark is Election Day turnout. A surge of voters who choose to cast their ballots on Tuesday could make up for the lower early voting numbers. Or it could be that Iowa ends up seeing a lower turnout election this year. Either way has implications for which candidates will be successful.
More:Who's on my ballot in the Iowa 2022 midterm election?
Will Gov. Kim Reynolds win a second term? (And will Libertarians regain major party status?)
It seems almost inevitable that Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds will win a second full term Tuesday.
Reynolds entered the race with the power of incumbency, strong approval ratings and massive fundraising numbers. Democrats seemed reluctant to enter the race from the beginning, and Des Moines businesswoman Deidre DeJear won an uncontested primary. She struggled to raise money early, and the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll has consistently showed her trailing Reynolds by double digits.
An interesting side note in the governor’s race is the Libertarian Party. If candidate Rick Stewart can garner at least 2% of the vote, the Iowa Libertarian Party will regain major party status.
Major party status would allow Libertarians to appear on Iowans’ primary election ballots and as an option on voter registration forms. Libertarians gained major party status after the 2016 election but lost it again following the 2018 election. when their gubernatorial candidate took just 1.6% of the vote.
More:See where Iowa candidates stand on key issues in the 2022 midterm elections
Is it a red wave in Iowa? And if so, will it be big enough to oust statewide Democrats?
Republicans have been predicting a red wave for months, and the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll indicates it may be materializing. Reynolds is expected to win by double digits, but a wave election could lift Republicans up and down the ballot, helping to oust Democrats in statewide offices.
The attorney general’s race looks to be particularly close, according to the Oct. 31-Nov. 3 Iowa Poll, which showed longtime Democratic incumbent Tom Miller leading Republican challenger Brenna Bird by just 2 percentage points, 47% to 45%. Miller has survived red-wave elections in the past, but Republicans are hopeful they can flip the office.
In the auditor’s race, Democratic incumbent Rob Sand has pummeled his Republican challenger, Todd Halbur, in fundraising, which has helped to air a statewide advertising campaign. But if a wave is big enough, could it topple Sand, or the other statewide Democratic elected official, Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald?
What's going on in the Des Moines suburbs?
Political insiders say they’re watching the Dallas County suburbs for hints about the direction of Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District, where Republican State Sen. Zach Nunn is challenging the Democratic incumbent, U.S. Rep. Cindy Axne. The race has attracted millions of dollars in outside spending.
Axne is expected to carry Polk County, and Republicans are expected to win the rural areas of the district. Suburban areas outside of Des Moines, and particularly in Dallas County, have been more swingy in recent years and could decide the direction of this hyper-competitive race.
More:2022 Iowa local election results
The suburban vote will also have an impact on whether Republicans gain seats in the Iowa Legislature this year or if Democrats can cut into the GOP’s majority.
This year’s most expensive state legislative race is Iowa Senate District 14, where Republican Senate President Jake Chapman faces Democratic Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott. Beyond that, the Polk and Dallas County suburbs feature several other competitive races in swingy districts that will help determine how many seats each party holds next year in the Iowa House and Senate.
How will Iowa's Senate, congressional elections affect which party holds power in Washington?
Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate rest on razor-thin margins ahead of Tuesday’s election. Republicans need to gain just a handful of seats nationwide to take control of one or both chambers.
Iowa’s congressional races may be part of the political shift in Washington, D.C. The 2nd and 3rd district races are closely competitive, according to our latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll. Axne might lose a precious blue seat, but there’s also a chance state Sen. Liz Mathis could unseat incumbent Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson.
The race between incumbent U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley, a Republican, and Democratic challenger Mike Franken had a wider margin, according to the latest poll. But if Franken unseats Grassley, it would be a crucial gain for Senate Democrats.
Control of Congress is a top issue for Iowa voters, the Iowa Poll found. Sixty-eight percent of likely voters said which party controls the U.S. House or Senate was a critical issue in the midterms.
What to know to cast your vote
Of course, you'll need to be informed before you cast your ballot. Here's some information to get you started.
When are polls open in Iowa?
Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Nov. 8.
How do I find my polling place?
To find your polling place, go to the Iowa Secretary of State website and enter your name and ZIP code. The website will tell you if you are a registered voter and where your polling place is located. Scroll to the bottom of this article for additional information on voting, registration and required identification.
How to find live results
We'll be reporting throughout the day as the election proceeds and then gathering results with the most comprehensive election coverage you can find in Iowa. Check back at DesMoinesRegister.com or download the free Des Moines Register app for iPhone or Android for instant access to results and coverage. Turn on breaking news notifications to get alerts as key races are called and get the latest analysis Wednesday from across the nation.
Support our journalism and year-round politics coverage by subscribing to the Des Moines Register. Subscribers get unlimited access to our content, including live results and subscriber-only analysis. We also encourage you to sign up for our Iowa Politics newsletter for daily behind-the-scenes looks at the political landscape and extended coverage of the Iowa Legislature when it resumes session in January.
Voting problems? See something suspicious at your precinct? Let us know
If you run into troubles when voting, such as if you find exceedingly long lines, you’re turned away at the polls, a poll watcher makes you feel uncomfortable or anything else feels out of the ordinary, email the Des Moines Register at IowaVotingIssues@gannett.com.
We will be monitoring the inbox and may contact you for more information, which could be included in a story. You can also call Register reporter Lee Rood at (515) 778-6670.
To inform officials about any problems you experience, contact your county auditor or the Iowa secretary of state at 888-SOS-VOTE.
Unsure if you're registered to vote? Need to register? Here's help
Iowa has some information to help you out.
Go to the Iowa Secretary of State website and enter your name and ZIP code. The website will tell you if you are a registered voter and where your polling place is located.
Not registered? Election Day registration is available that will allow you to cast a vote. But you must go to the polling place for your current address.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa's Election Day is Tuesday. Here are 5 things we're watching for
