FiveThirtyEight's new Senate tracker gives Democrats a slight edge to win control
Polls are pretty universally looking in Democrats' favors this fall.
Both national and swing state polls so far give Democratic nominee Joe Biden the advantage this fall, with FiveThirtyEight giving Biden a 77 percent chance of winning to President Trump's 22 percent. And in its Senate election forecast rolled out Friday, FiveThirtyEight also gave Democrats a slight edge when it comes to winning that body as well.
Several Senate seats Republicans currently hold are at risk of flipping to Democrats, FiveThirtyEight predicts. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Sen. Joni Ernst's (R-Iowa) races are essentially tossups, while Sen. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.) and Sen. Thom Tillis' (R-N.C.) seats tip in Democrats' favors. Sen. Martha McSally's (R-Ariz.) seat meanwhile seems safely headed to Democrat Mark Kelly.
Winning just four of those seats would be enough to give Democrats the majority in the Senate, though they may have to make up for a loss from Sen. Doug Jones (D) in Alabama; Jones has a 28 in 100 chance of holding his seat. That ground could be made up in Montana, where Gov. Steve Bullock (D) has about the same chance of beating current Sen. Steve Daines (R).
In all, FiveThirtyEight predicts Democrats have a 58 in 100 chance of winning Senate control. Find the whole forecast here.
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