Severe weather, flooding risk to focus from Missouri to North Carolina Thursday
Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will travel along a swath from Missouri to Virginia and create a flash flooding threat into Thursday evening. This will include the risk for severe weather
The thunderstorms will set up along a slow-moving warm front that extends eastward from Missouri, AccuWeather Meteorologist Andrew Kienzle said.
A large complex of showers and severe thunderstorms that hit the central Plains Tuesday will drift eastward across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys into Wednesday night with locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
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A large mass of clouds with showers and thunderstorms beneath was pushing eastward across the Midwest on Wednesday, May 18, 2022. (GOES-East/NOAA) |
Additional pockets of showers and thunderstorms will erupt over the same regions in the wake of the thunderstorm complex into Thursday evening. The rainfall will fall on saturated ground in some cases, which can lead to quick runoff and a risk of flash flooding of streams and urban areas.
Downpours from the lead complex and others that follow will occur farther to the east from West Virginia to Virginia, and parts of Maryland, Delaware and North Carolina into Thursday evening. The same problems from flash flooding can occur as that of the Ohio Valley, but in a more isolated nature.
In addition, severe weather will be a risk. This will be a continuation of a complex of thunderstorms that was in north-central Oklahoma Thursday morning. The storms may reintensify as heating from the sun adds energy to the atmosphere, and locations from southeastern Missouri to southwestern Virginia and northwestern North Carolina will have a severe weather potential Thursday afternoon and evening.
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"A surge of warm, moist air up from the Gulf of Mexico will help supply these storms with plenty of moisture," explained Kienzle.
Flooding downpours will be the main risk, and forecasters say rainfall totals ranging from 1 to 3 inches will be possible. In the heaviest of storms, rainfall rates over 1 inch an hour could occur.
Heavy rainfall rates combined with the likely west-to-east movement of storms could lead to multiple heavy storms dropping 2 inches of rain rather quickly in some areas, Kienzle said.
Excessive rainfall rates across the Ohio Valley can create dangerous travel conditions through Thursday. Motorists traveling along portions of interstates 64, 70, 81 and 79 should travel with extra caution with the heightened risk of torrential downpours and flash flooding from storms.
"The heaviest of this rainfall looks to be focused along the western side of the Appalachians, and once these storms spill east over the mountains, the threat for significant rainfall lowers," stated Kienzle.
After consecutive stormy days, farmers and gardeners who have started to plant crops and flowers could face the risk of washout or even minor damage to some of the more sensitive vegetation. Overly saturated soils combined with fresh, unrooted plants could spell trouble for gardens and fields.
The weather pattern from Texas to South Carolina will trend on the drier side from the middle to the latter part of this week as the moisture is transported northward. However, residents will not escape the heat as it gradually builds eastward across the country's southern half through Thursday.
Daytime highs ranging upwards of 90 degrees Fahrenheit expanded to cities such as Birmingham, Alabama (92 F); Nashville, Tennessee (90 F); and Atlanta (88 F) Wednesday and the heat will linger through the end of the week. Even locations like Raleigh, North Carolina, will climb into the mid-90s F later this week. For most sites, temperatures late this week will trend between 5 and 10 degrees above average for this time of year.
Meanwhile, locations to the north and northeast of the rounds of storms can generally expect comfortable weather with periods of light showers. Temperatures will begin to climb higher heading into the weekend as the warmth builds across the East.
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