Flooding expected to start late next week for much of Red River Valley
Apr. 14—GRAND FORKS — Communities along the Red River not yet experiencing flooding can expect river levels to rise to flood stages late next week and into next weekend, say National Weather Service forecasters.
In a National Weather Service flood update on Friday, April 14, Amanda Lee, service hydrologist in Grand Forks, said while the snowpack has started to melt, water has been slow to reach the river system.
"Dry soils that we had from our dry fall last year have really allowed for a good amount of infiltration into the soils," Lee said.
Moderate to major flooding is expected in most of the Red River Valley this spring. In the northern valley, Grand Forks, Pembina and Oslo are at risk of major flooding, while Drayton is at risk of moderate flooding.
Some places have already started to see overland flooding, meaning the soil has become saturated, an issue that will continue to grow as snow continues to melt.
"Any additional snowmelt or rainfall on top of that will run off more quickly than we've seen so far," Lee said. "Overland flooding concerns will probably still be increasing here as we move forward in the next week or two."
Conditions over the next week are likely to continue the slow buildup to flooding, Lee said. In the next nine days, most high temperatures are expected to be above freezing, while low temperatures will be below freezing.
"That will continue to drag out this snow melt time period and kind of make things slower to run into the river system," she said.
Some Red River tributaries, like the Red Lake River in Crookston, are expected to crest earlier than the mainstem Red River, which could result in a lower Red River crest.
"The slower melt in some areas is really working in our favor," said Lee.
Flood warnings have been issued in Minnesota for the Red Lake River at Crookston affecting Polk County, the Two Rivers River near Hallock affecting Kittson County and the Roseau River at Roseau affecting Roseau County.
Warming temperatures upstream of Crookston have started melting the Red Lake River, said Jim Kaiser, warning coordination meteorologist.
"We're starting to watch out for some ice conditions at Crookston because that's a favorable location — still dealing with the sheet ice there," said Kaiser.
Minor flooding is expected for Crookston, with a crest of 19 feet projected on Sunday or Monday. The flood stage for the Red Lake River at Crookston is 15 feet, with moderate flooding beginning at 20 feet. Central Park begins flooding at 19 feet.
Kaiser said the Pembina River at Walhalla and tributaries in Walsh County have started to rise, but the rivers will likely remain below the flood stage.
"We are seeing some rises on some of these (tributaries), but again, because of shallower snow depths, there is not as much water to move through the system and not seeing that threat for any minor flooding in northeast North Dakota," Kaiser said.
Some overland flooding has been observed in western Walsh County. A flood warning for snowmelt in some parts of northeast North Dakota, including Walsh County and Pembina County, is in effect until Friday, April 21.
Lee also gave an update for flooding in the Devils Lake basin. In early summer, Devils Lake is projected to rise between a half foot and one and a half feet. An updated outlook for Devils Lake will be issued on Thursday, April 27.
Precipitation over the next few days and weeks could change river forecasts into May, Lee said. A possible storm system at the end of next week could bring rain or snow to parts of the Red River Valley, with a 30% chance for greater than a half inch of liquid precipitation and a 10% chance for greater than one inch of liquid precipitation.
"Any additional future rainfall has the potential to impact river levels into the month of May, as we expect river levels to be running high, and we're going to see increasing chances for heavy precipitation, as always a possibility," Lee said.
