Florida becomes ground zero for B.1.1.7 and Trump’s relaunch, as Haiti could become Biden’s first foreign policy test

It’s Monday, Feb. 15. Happy President’s Day. It seems Florida has become ground zero.

When it comes to the B.1.1.7 variant of the COVID virus, also known as the ‘”U.K. variant” which is the more infectious version of the virus, Florida is now the nation’s hotspot.

When it comes to the reemergence of Donald Trump, after his historic defeat, second impeachment trial, and Pyrrhic acquittal victory, Florida is also closest to detonation.

WHAT WE’RE TALKING ABOUT

‘Just begun’: Reinvigorated by the vote to acquit him again, the former president is expected to emerge from a self-imposed hibernation at Mar-a-Lago this week as he seeks ways to reassert his power. When he does, how will the Republican Party define itself? Does it prioritize policies or allegiance to Trump? How will it now describe law and order? Personal responsibility? Adherence to truth?

“In the months ahead I have much to share with you, and I look forward to continuing our incredible journey together to achieve American greatness for all of our people,” Trump said in a statement after the Senate vote, which included votes to acquit from Florida senators Rick Scott and Marco Rubio. The movement, Trump said, “has only just begun.”

B.1.1.7 Florida: There were 379 confirmed cases of the COVID variant in Florida on Sunday, including a student at the University of Central Florida in Orlando. But the true number is likely much greater as researchers have examined only a small fraction of the cases because the process, known as genomic sequencing, is expensive and time-consuming.

Recent studies predict B.1.1.7 will be the predominant strain of the COVID virus in Florida by March. Because it is between 40-60% more contagious than other strains, scientists worry it could accelerate severe disease and deaths before enough people get vaccinated.

Travel restrictions? As the Miami Herald first reported, that concern is enough to spark talk within the Biden administration about whether to consider imposing domestic travel restrictions, based on the spread of the virus surge in each state.

‘Unconstitutional and unjust:” Gov. Ron DeSantis, who opposes local government mask mandates and social distancing limits responded: “I think it would be unconstitutional, it would be unwise and it would be unjust.”

This response is the opposite of the way he reacted on March 14, 2020, when he wanted then-President Trump to consider imposing flight restrictions on travelers coming to Florida from other states. “I think the administration needs to look at domestic flights from certain areas that have outbreaks,’’ he said then.

Is Florida just testing more? In an appearance on Fox News Sunday Morning Futures with host Maria Bartiromo, the governor suggested the reason the B.1.1.7 variant is more prevalent in Florida is because the state is doing more sequencing to find the mutation than other states.

“So first off, we obviously look at all the data that comes in,’’ he said. “But this strain is in Blue States and they don’t talk about doing anything with Blue States. We do a lot of analysis and genetic analysis on strains, so we find more than probably some other states do.”

In fact, the Biden suggestion made no reference to red or blue states but instead to case prevalence. Although DeSantis’ administration has refused to release its data about the variant, the governor suggested that Florida cases are dropping, so the variant isn’t a concern. “Since the beginning of January, visits to the emergency departments for COVID-like illnesses in Florida are down almost 60 percent. Cases are down,’’ he said. “Hospital census are down 30 to 40 percent.”

Numbers still high: Those numbers are accurate, said Mary Jo Trepka, an epidemiologist at Florida International University. But while cases and hospitalizations are falling, they are still high and the state may be seeing a lag in new infections from the variant, she and other experts said. Public health officials worry that the drop in infection rates will lead people to let down their guard just as the variant is getting a foothold in Florida. The flu season typically extends longer in Florida, they warn, and as the weather heats up, people gather more often inside, increasing the risk of exposure.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

Haiti becomes Biden test: Haiti’s political turmoil threatens to become one of the Biden administration’s first foreign policy tests. A peaceful march to demand the ouster of President Jovenel Moïse ended in violence Sunday with at least one dead, several journalists injured and police firing tear gas and rubber bullets onto crowds in the country’s capital. Moïse has been ruling by decree for over a year after dismissing most of the legislature and has issued a number of executive orders strengthening his powers as president. Opponents say his term expired on Feb. 7. He disagrees.

Tech relocations: COVID has also produced another side effect: Tech entrepreneurs and finance gurus are relocating to Miami. And for economic development professionals, what happens in the next few months could set the tone for years to come.

Suarez’s positioning: Miami’s Republican Mayor Francis Suarez sees opportunity in the COVID crisis. He not only has been talking with the likes of Elon Musk, he last week attended a meeting with several U.S. governors and mayors to discuss President Joe Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion COVID stimulus package. While there, he said the city can handle a dramatic increase in the supply of vaccines if the federal government can provide the shots.

Vaccine confusion round 5: Walmart mistakenly allowed Florida residents under 65 with health conditions to book a COVID-19 vaccine appointments last week, in violation of the governor’s order which only gives hospitals the option to single out exceptions to the 65-plus rule. The company said, however, it would honor the appointments.

Miami-Dade County’s vendor last week also mistakenly offered 430 vaccine appointments to ineligible people, forcing the county to retract the offers for the coveted doses. The mistake occurred when the vaccination website run by Utah-based Nomi Health sent out invitations for people under 65 to schedule vaccine appointments.

Too few Miami-Dade seniors: Despite being the epicenter of severe COVID cases and deaths in Florida, Miami-Dade has vaccinated a smaller percentage of its seniors than the state average, according to data from the Florida Department of Health. The state has been making progress as a whole, with about one-third of Florida seniors having now received at least one dose of the two federally authorized COVID-19 vaccines. But in Miami-Dade, which has suffered the most hospitalizations and deaths from the disease in the state, the percentage of seniors 65 and older who have received at least one dose is closer to 1 in 4.

Unfair allocation: The federal government currently allocates COVID-19 vaccines based on a state’s adult population, not based on the number of people over age 65. Florida Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy says that’s unfair to states like Florida with a high percentage of older adults, so she’s asking the Biden administration to change the formula.

Goodbye Shane: Shane Strum, the governor’s chief of staff who for two years helped guide his boss — a newcomer to both state government and executive leadership — has resigned. Strum was named chief executive officer for Broward Health and will move back to his hometown at the start of March. It’s part of the mid-term changing of the guard in the governor’s administration, and we expect more transitions to come.

Hello Richard: Richard Gentry, a veteran lobbyist who last year represented a utility-backed nonprofit, was appointed last week by legislators to be the chief lawyer representing consumers in utility rate cases before state regulators. Gentry has spent four decades as a lobbyist representing developers, sugar producers and the parimutuel industry. He replaces J.R. Kelly, the lawyer who for the last 14 years represented the public in rate cases and has been an aggressive opponent to rate requests and legal maneuverings of the state’s largest utility, Florida Power & Light.

Missing kids = missing $: Florida House Speaker Chris Sprowls warned school districts that hundreds of millions of dollars they were allowed to keep this year because of the COVID-19 pandemic could be gone next year if the 87,000 students who didn’t return to school last fall don’t show up again next year.

Not a ‘witch hunt’: After a preliminary report into executive compensation at nonprofit social services organizations, the DeSantis administration has found itself on the defensive. Last week, the governor’s chief inspector general told a House committee that the probe into social welfare organizations was not “any kind of witch hunt” but instead was an attempt at “bringing transparency to the process” of state and federal funds used by privately run entities.

Redistricting watch: The U.S. Census Bureau said Friday it won’t be delivering data used for redrawing congressional and state legislative districts until the end of September. This is a bigger headache for lawmakers in other states who have deadlines this year. Florida legislators weren’t expected to start the process until fall anyway, and complete work early next year.

Vacation rental pre-emption: The effort to block local governments from regulating vacation rentals is on the move again, as Florida House and Senate leaders revive a proposal to prevent cities and counties from inspecting and licensing properties offered on platforms such as Airbnb. One change: for the first time the online platforms would have to collect and remit taxes on vacation rental properties, ensure that only properly licensed rentals are advertised, and provide the state with specific information about the rentals. Last year, DeSantis signaled his opposition to a similar bill, effectively killing it.

Shielding from liability: A measure that would provide broad immunity to nursing homes, hospitals and physicians from coronavirus-related lawsuits is being fast-tracked through the state Legislature. Democrats and consumer advocates warn the measure will keep people with legitimate claims from access to the courts.

Same ask on same sex: Florida Democrats will try again this year to repeal an outdated law banning same-sex marriage. The section of Florida code has been irrelevant since 2015, when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that same-sex couples across the country have a Constitutional right to marry. And yet, efforts to repeal it have been stymied.

Let’s talk! Tune in Thursday, Feb. 18 at 6 p.m. for a virtual conversation with political scientist Dr. Susan McManus and me, Miami Herald Capitol Bureau Chief Mary Ellen Klas. We’ll take your questions as we talk about the 2020 election cycle, it’s impact on voting and access, and the forces impacting 2022. The event is hosted by the Florida Historic Capitol Museum and The Village Square in celebration of the virtual opening of the Smithsonian Institution exhibition Voices and Votes: Democracy in America. Please join us! Register here.

Stay well and we’d love to hear from you. Miami Herald Capitol Bureau Chief Mary Ellen Klas curated this newsletter. If you have any ideas or suggestions, please drop me a note at meklas@miamiherald.com.

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