Florida Democrats must begin to play the long game | Opinion
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Democrats are at a distinct disadvantage in Florida. Republicans have been in control of the executive and legislative branches since 1998. They have redrawn district lines to their favor. The number of registered Republicans is now greater than the number of registered Democrats and the Cuban-American population is trending even more Republican.
Gov. DeSantis is extremely popular among Republicans. There is fear among many Florida Democrats that the Democratic National Committee, the Democratic Governors Association, and national donors will simply write off Florida as a red state. The question that must be addressed is what, if anything, can the Democrats do in Florida?
In the short run, the Democrats must develop a consistent message that explains the actions of DeSantis and Republicans which have restricted individual freedoms, especially those of women, restricted African-American voting and protest rights, interfered into private business decisions and their free speech rights, restricted the ability of teachers to do their jobs, restricted local government autonomy, and caused thousands of unnecessary deaths due to COVID.
The messages should come from average citizens: people who lost loved ones to COVID, women, teachers, African Americans, Hispanics, and millennials. They must squarely blame DeSantis and the Republicans.
The Democrats must run a competitive candidate against DeSantis. There are three candidates now and the front runner is Charlie Crist but none fare very well in current polling against DeSantis. While most informed observers do not give the Democratic candidate much of a chance in 2022, remember that DeSantis won by only .4 percentage points in 2018.
The recent push by the Democrats supported by the Florida Alliance to register more voters in democratic areas of the state is important. Turn out by Democrats will be the deciding factor. Given the recent voter law changes and the fact that midterm elections traditionally have lower voter turnout this will depend upon a strong local party organization. This is a major weakness for the Democrats.
The last sustained statewide local organizing effort by Democrats was during the 2012 presidential election. Since then, little has been done and this helps to understand the 2016 and 2020 elections and the party’s inability to compete in statewide races.
Florida Democrats must begin to look long term by developing a consistent, year-round ground game at the precinct and county levels. Nikki Fried, Commissioner of Agriculture and a candidate for Governor, is working with the National Democratic Training Committee to develop local party leaders and organizations. Local rather than national leadership is crucial because of the tremendous diversity in Florida politics.
Millennials, women, and minorities are crucial in staffing and leading these local organizations. Millennials make up the largest generation in American history and are more diverse, more progressive, and tend to vote for the Democrats. Women and minorities are among the strongest supporters of the Democratic Party.
The Democrats need to recruit and put these young people to work locally, give them a personal stake in the outcomes of elections. To put it simply, the Democrats must rebuild themselves from the bottom up with women, minorities, and the millennials. This will take time, but I note that demographic trends through 2035-40 favor the Democrats.
A long-term ground game is essential for the future of Democrats in Florida.
Cliff Staten is a retired Professor of Political Science and International Studies at Indiana University Southeast. He has lived in Tallahassee for three years.
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This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Florida Democrats must begin to play the long game | Opinion
