Florida Democrats think the unthinkable: We're in play

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Florida Democrats, long under the thumb of Ron DeSantis, are giddy the mayoral victory in Jacksonville could be the end to a long, long losing streak.

Former TV anchor Donna Deegan’s win Tuesday night in the state’s biggest city is giving the party — which doesn’t hold a single statewide office — a glimmer of hope heading into 2024, when there’s a good chance that the GOP challenger to President Joe Biden will come from Florida. Democrats say Deegan’s win is both a repudiation of DeSantis and a sign that all is not lost for them in the Sunshine state.

Even before Tuesday, Biden signaled that in his eyes, Florida, which hasn’t gone for a Democrat in a presidential election since 2012, remains a competitive battleground state despite the Republicans’ huge voter registration and cash advantage. The president’s campaign recently aired television ads in Tampa and Orlando. And in February, Biden visited Florida during a post-State of the Union swing and sent surrogates to Florida this month.

“This solidifies we are not off the map,” said Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried. “Everybody is really excited. They feel that this is a great signal and that there is something to invest in Florida.”

State Sen. Shevrin Jones, who is on Biden’s National Advisory Board, said that Deegan’s win “not only puts Florida in play but lets donors know Florida has never really been red.”

The big question, however, is whether Deegan’s win in Jacksonville is an outlier or a sign of things to come in a state that just six months ago saw Republicans crush Democrats up and down the ballot. DeSantis himself recently boasted that last year’s defeats had left Democrats a “dead carcass on the side of the road.”

Despite the psychological boost from Jacksonville, some Democrats privately cautioned about extracting too much from the win, noting that Republicans still have significant tactical advantages in the state, including having 472,000 more Republicans registered to vote, holding every statewide Cabinet position and supermajorities in the Legislature.

A person close to Biden’s campaign, who was granted anonymity to speak openly about the campaign dynamics, said Deegan’s win sends a strong message to those who counted out the president, and Democrats in general. The person contended the victory was a rejection of DeSantis, who just six months ago won the city by 12 points during the midterms. Since DeSantis won reelection, he has pushed a red meat conservative agenda ahead of his expected presidential bid, including signing a six-week abortion ban, that even some Republicans have privately fretted could cost them support among moderate Republicans.

A key part of Democrats' optimism is due to Deegan’s defeat of Daniel Davis, a former legislator and CEO of Jacksonville’s chamber of commerce, 52 percent to 48 percent, even though Republicans edged Democrats in overall turnout by three percent. The numbers suggest that Deegan — who had gotten some GOP endorsements locally — was able to pick up independents and some crossover Republicans.

Davis had veered to the right in the lead up to the election, and Republicans targeted Deegan with ads about her participation in Black Lives Matter protests and claims she wanted to install “radical policies” if she won. The race primarily focused on local issues, such as crime and whether Davis at one point wanted to sell off the city-owned electric utility.

Deegan continually offered herself up as a change agent in a city where Democrats had only held the post of mayor once in the past three decades. But Democrats had won Jacksonville in statewide races over the past decade. Andrew Gillum, the Democratic nominee for governor, won the county in 2018, as did Biden two years later. But DeSantis soundly defeated Charlie Crist in Duval County, where Jacksonville is located, last November.

“Candidates and campaigns matter and what they say matters,” said Ashley Walker, who was the state director of President Barack Obama’s 2012 campaign and worked as a consultant for Deegan. “Donna was a very genuine candidate with a very compelling message with a localized campaign that focused on very Jacksonville-based issues.”

Democrats, nationally and at the state level, did help out. The Democratic National Committee tapped volunteers to reach out to tens of thousands of voters casting mail-in ballots while state organizations helped out with phone banking.

And while DeSantis endorsed Davis, the governor didn’t hold any events with the candidate in the closing days of the campaign. DeSantis spent Friday and Saturday of last week in Iowa and Illinois attending Republican fundraisers.

Former President Donald Trump, another Florida resident, took shots at DeSantis for the Jacksonville loss, saying in a social media post on Truth Social: “Wow! In a big upset, the DeSanctimonious backed Republican candidate for Mayor of Jacksonville, Florida, LOST. This is a shocker. If they would have asked me to Endorse, he would have won, easily. Too proud to do so. Fools! This is a BIG LOSS for the Republican Party. Remember, “Rob” only won because of me!!!”

But one of Trump’s own campaign advisers — Susie Wiles — is a longtime friend and ally of Davis who informally gave him advice in his run for mayor.

Christian Ziegler, the chair of the Republican Party of Florida, contended that Deegan’s win was unique and noted that one of Davis' GOP opponents in the March primary helped damage him ahead of the general election.

“We had a huge bloody primary where millions of dollars were spent to rip apart the eventual Republican nominee,” Ziegler said. “The clock ran out and we didn’t have enough time to recover.”

He said Democrats would be wrong to view the victory as a signal they can rebound statewide.

“Florida is a much different monster than a municipal off year,” Ziegler said.

Walker, the Deegan consultant and former Obama state director, said the lesson from Deegan’s victory — which came after a year and a half of work — is that Democrats must build up their bench by finding local races where they can notch wins.

“Democrats need to approach Florida in a very localized, piece by piece approach where we are going into purple areas,” Walker said.