Florida doesn’t gain many new women voters after Roe ruling, but abortion issue remains

Some states have seen major gains in new women voters since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June, a decision that outraged many. But that wasn’t the case in Florida.

A New York Times analysis showed that Kansas registered an almost 16 percentage point jump in new women voters following the Dobbs v. Jackson ruling, while key swing states Ohio and Pennsylvania saw gains of more than 6 points.

Florida, however, saw just a 2-point increase in new women signing up to vote.

Matt Isbell, a Democratic elections analyst who runs the MCIMaps website, confirmed that in the first month after Dobbs, there were about 43,000 new women voters in Florida compared with about 39,000 new men who registered.

But Isbell was cautious about assigning major significance to the numbers, saying that it only measures the enthusiasm of people who weren’t already politically engaged.

“Maybe the issue in Florida is that more people are motivated to vote, but they’re already registered,” Isbell said. “So we wouldn’t see that in the registration figures.”

Gregory Koger, a professor of political science at the University of Miami, said a battleground state like Florida would already have high numbers of motivated voters.

“If voter registration was already high among women in the state of Florida, then there just wouldn’t be as much room for a surge,” Koger said. “In football terms, it’s like how the Jacksonville Jaguars have a better opportunity to improve their win total than the Tampa Bay Bucs, because they sucked last year. And a state that had lower female voter registration would be well positioned to have a surge.”

The biggest single boost found by the New York Times was in Kansas, for example, where a referendum to ban abortion was on the ballot and failed by a sizable margin. Women made up just 47% of new voters in Kansas prior to the leaked news about the Dobbs decision in May.

Florida’s female population also is older, and thus likely more conservative, than the rest of the country. According to the U.S. Census, more than 37% of Florida’s female population is age 55 and above, compared with about 31% nationally.

The Republican Party has passed Democrats in voter registration in Florida for the first time, with about 5.23 million voters to 4.96 million for the Democrats as of Aug. 31.

Still, Isbell said, “When you look at the polling on [abortion], it doesn’t have a gigantic gender gap. … So why are we only assuming that the women registering are going to be the ones who are voting Democratic and not any of the men? And some of the women are also pro-life.”

State Rep. Anna Eskamani, D-Orlando, a former Planned Parenthood official, acknowledged that the numbers of new women voters in Florida did not include a sizable bump after Dobbs.

“That’s why a part of our goal has been to help voters understand that abortion is on the ballot,” Eskamani said. “Because if folks understand the seriousness of that, I do feel confident saying that they’ll be motivated to come out and vote.”

More than 90% of Americans have heard about the Dobbs decision, she said, a level usually unseen among political issues.

“Abortion access continuously comes up as an issue when we go door knocking,” Eskamani said. “Folks are very concerned about the future of reproductive rights in Florida, and they want to know where we stand on this issue. And we’ve even seen Republicans support us because they feel like their own party is going in the wrong direction. So I definitely consider it to be a very important issue for Democrats this cycle.”

Democrats have made abortion rights the linchpin of their campaign, with U.S. Rep. Charlie Crist, the Democrats’ nominee for governor, crossing the state in “The Choice is Choice” tour to slam Gov. Ron DeSantis’ signing a 15-week abortion ban this year with no exceptions for rape or incest.

“That’s what’s on the ballot,” Crist said in Orlando earlier this month. “Freedom to choose. ... Who else should never have that decision? Nobody. It’s your decision. That’s really what’s on the ballot. That’s what this election is all about.”

DeSantis hasn’t been explicit about any future abortion restrictions.

He praised the Dobbs ruling in June and promised that Florida “will work to expand pro-life protections,” without offering specifics. He added in August that he would welcome “future endeavors” on abortion restrictions.

Republicans have attempted to fight back, both by falsely accusing Democrats of being extremists who support abortion on demand up until birth and by portraying the 15-week law as a reasonable compromise.

“Women will continue flocking to the party that values life,” Republican National Committee spokeswoman Julia Friedland said.

But Eskamani said the 15-week law is extreme.

“The Republican tactic in Florida is to brand 15 weeks as not being a big deal,” Eskamani said. " … They’re basically trying to say that 15 weeks is not something to be alarmed by. And our point is, you should be alarmed by it. There are no exceptions for rape or incest. And it’s their first step.”

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