Florida GOP wins war of early voting as Election Day arrives

With Florida’s Election Day finally here on Tuesday, Republicans have outpaced Democrats with early voting and were keeping close with the mail-in vote, an ominous sign for the blue party.

Voting advocates also were concerned about Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration pushing elections supervisors to challenge hundreds of voters across the state as potentially ineligible.

The campaigns continued their last-minute swings around the state Monday, with DeSantis and U.S. Sen Marco Rubio appearing at an event in Orlando.

Democratic gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist was set to hold a final get-out-the-vote rally in Fort Lauderdale with U.S. Rep. Val Demings, D-Orlando, the party’s U.S. Senate candidate.

In total, about 4.8 million people had already voted in Florida, a third of registered voters in the state.

Republicans outpolled Democrats in early voting by more than 480,000 votes, according to the state Division of Elections, while Democrats had returned about 163,000 more mail-in ballots than Republicans.

Even the counties where Democrats have the early vote advantage “are areas where I really expect Republicans to be showing up on Election Day, places like Sarasota, Pinellas, Palm Beach,” said Matt Isbell, a Democratic elections analyst. “So I think when all of this ends, we’re going to see Republican turnout over Democratic turnout almost across the entire state.”

Nearly 800,000 Democrats had yet to return their mail-in ballots with just one day to go before the 7 p.m. Tuesday deadline, compared to just over 500,000 Republicans who had yet to return their ballots. It’s too late to mail them in and still be counted, but voters can hand deliver their ballots at their county elections offices or exchange them for an in-person ballot at their precinct on Tuesday.

“There’s probably a good number of ballots that are yet to come into the election offices, it’s hard to say exactly how many,” said Michael McDonald, a professor of political science at the University of Florida.

Elections officials in Orange, Osceola, Lake and Seminole counties reported no new cases of attempted voter intimidation, though Osceola supervisor Mary Jane Arrington said there had been two reports of calls with misinformation.

“The only thing we’ve gotten reports of is voters receiving phone calls, identifying [themselves] as the elections office, and telling them their polling location has changed,” Arrington said.

A Politico report that the DeSantis administration wanted supervisors to challenge the eligibility of at least 1,500 voters concerned Cecile Scoon, president of the League of Women Voters of Florida.

“This isn’t normal protocol,” Scoon said. “And the timing is very unfair. … It’s a rush deal at the end of a process just before voting, and that’s not fair. That doesn’t look right. That doesn’t smell right. That’s something that never had to happen in that manner.”

The move comes after DeSantis’ new elections police force ordered the controversial arrests of 20 former felons for voting, despite many being told by government officials that they were eligible. Many critics have said the arrests were made to deter former felons from voting.

“We have definitely heard that from groups that are involved with returning citizens on a regular basis,” Scoon said. “And it appears to be intentional.”

Elections supervisors in Central Florida said they were flagging, not challenging, some voters.

“We can flag those voters so if they do go to vote, then the message comes up at the polling location that they need to call us,” Arrington said. “And then when they call us, we will explain to them their options.”

Orange County supervisor Bill Cowles said those flagged under the system have already been sent a notice that they need to provide proof of being able to vote and haven’t yet done so.

“So we’re giving them another chance,” Cowles said. " … [But] none of them showed up during early voting.”

He added that just because a former felon may have not received such a notice does not mean they are in the clear.

“I wouldn’t say that,” he said. “It’s their responsibility to check and verify what their status is. And I think the message is that you should do that, so that nothing comes back on you.”

Cowles also said the Orange County GOP’s Election Integrity Task Force has challenged 114 general election mail-in ballots as of Monday. Just thirteen voters whose ballots were rejected following the GOP challenge have fixed any problems so far.

Despite the 30% turnout so far, experts did not think those numbers would add up to the record-breaking midterm turnout from 2018.

“The 2018 election had the highest turnout rate since 1914,” McDonald said of the 63% turnout. “People were really engaged. Is it possible we’re gonna reach that 2018 level? I’m kind of doubting it.”

Still, he said, “for a midterm election, it’s probably going to be the second highest turnout election we’ve seen since the 1960s, at the very least.”

McDonald compared Florida to a state like Georgia, where voter engagement was high due to a toss-up U.S. Senate race that’s become the most expensive in U.S. history.

“There’s been lots of media attention and have a very colorful character with Herschel Walker running,” McDonald said. “So all of those things are our factors that usually drive up turnout, and we just don’t have them here in Florida.”

Complete election coverage can be found at OrlandoSentinel.com/election.

It’s time to vote

Polls will be open in Florida from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on Tuesday. Those in line at 7 p.m. can still vote if they remain in line. Voters can find their polling locations on their county elections office website.