How Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is fighting to survive the Iowa cold, caucuses

Inside a sprawling office building, dozens of Ron DeSantis’ supporters crowded in between office furniture, awaiting Florida’s governor while escaping the unrelenting subzero temperatures and winds outside.

DeSantis was still miles away, delayed by the icy roads and heaps of snow that have complicated the final hours of the campaign to win the Iowa caucuses on Monday. When he took the stage more than an hour after the event was slated to start, he said neither he nor his supporters would be deterred by the punishing weather.

“They can throw a blizzard at us, and we are going to fight,” DeSantis said, flanked by his wife and 5-year-old son. “They can throw wind chill at us, and we are going to fight.”

Even with Iowa experiencing life-threatening blizzard conditions, the Saturday speech, organized by the pro-DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down, drew hundreds of attendees. The room became so warm from the crowd that people were fanning themselves with DeSantis 2024 placards.

Yet as Florida’s governor made his final push to the first nominating contest of the campaign to win the Republican presidential nomination, the dropping mercury — like DeSantis’ falling poll numbers — was difficult to ignore.

Temperatures are expected to remain below 0 degrees on Monday as Iowans head to precincts to caucus — a process different from a typical election that requires participants to be present. Republican candidates were forced to scrap some in-person campaign events this weekend as a blizzard bore down on the state.

And on Saturday, a new poll with a reputation for closely tracking caucus results showed DeSantis in third place — warning of a potentially damaging result for a candidate who went all-in on Iowa.

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“We don’t know what the turnout is going to be like,” DeSantis said during a Friday call with supporters, scheduled after he was forced to cancel an in-person event. “With the weather this cold, I’d be shocked if it was a high turnout.”

To lift DeSantis’ hopes, dozens of Florida Republicans have descended upon Iowa in recent days to campaign for the governor. They sought to stay upbeat amid the brutal winter weather, but some acknowledged the challenges it posed.

“I think it might be a little different knocking on doors in Hialeah than it is here in Des Moines,” Florida Education Commissioner Manny Diaz Jr., who flew into Des Moines earlier on Saturday, joked on the sidelines of DeSantis’ speech in West Des Moines. “It’s pretty rough out there. I got Florida blood. It’s a little thin so it might take a little getting used to.”

Florida state Rep. Chip LaMarca, who represents part of Broward County, arrived in Des Moines on Friday, barely escaping the flight cancellations that wreaked havoc on most air travel to Iowa. He said that he spoke to a 90-year-old woman who was hesitant to show up to caucus on Monday. Eventually, he said, “she committed to do her best” to get to her caucus site.

“I think the weather is going to play a big part, because they have to be there,” LaMarca said. “They’re not voting online, they’re not voting by mail. They’re going to be in a room and do their thing.”

The results could make or break the DeSantis campaign, which has invested significant money and time in Iowa.

A Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll released Saturday night found DeSantis’ support falling to 16%, down from 19% in December. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley now stands at 20% support, while Trump towers over all of his rivals at 48%.

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During one DeSantis event Saturday, a prankster was escorted out after interrupting the gathering to present the governor with a “participation trophy,” a poke at expectations that Trump will easily win the contest.

But there are some bright spots. DeSantis’ supporters are more enthusiastic than Haley’s, according to the poll. And the Iowa caucuses are famously unpredictable affairs that have the potential to elevate candidates once seen as longshots.

“I’m going to talk about expectations and I expect the governor to win,” said Florida state Sen. Blaise Ingoglia, who arrived in Des Moines on Saturday to help boost DeSantis. “Iowa traditionally does not follow the same orthodoxy when it comes to the polls, and the people who are leading the polls don’t traditionally translate into a win in Iowa.”

In an appearance on Fox News Sunday, DeSantis said he expects caucus results to be a “pivot point” that resets narratives from the campaign, saying candidates have to “earn it.”

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How Iowans see it

Ingoglia and other Florida Republicans are helping Never Back Down, the pro-DeSantis super PAC that organized Saturday’s event, ahead of the caucuses. Ingoglia said that he would spend the coming days making phone calls and knocking on doors to boost DeSantis’ candidacy.

The goal is to ensure that DeSantis remains front-and-center in the minds of voters, even in the face of subzero temperatures. After wrapping up his speech in West Des Moines on Saturday afternoon, DeSantis raced off to his next stop in Davenport, nearly three hours east of Des Moines.

But even Iowans who aren’t strangers to frigid winters acknowledged that the current forecast is more intense than they’re used to, including Bryan Moon, 62, who owns a bar in suburban Clive, Iowa. He said that he still plans to caucus on Monday, but joked that when it comes to braving the weather, “it’s better to look good than to feel good.”

Moon, who attended DeSantis’ speech in West Des Moines on Saturday, said that he’s still deciding between DeSantis, Haley and Trump in the Republican nominating contest. He said that he likes that Haley and DeSantis have experience as governors, but that when it comes to Trump, “the devil you know is better than the devil you don’t know.” Still, he noted, DeSantis “should be rewarded” for the close attention he and his allies have paid to Iowa.

The big question is whether Iowa voters will ultimately reward DeSantis on Monday for his efforts. Dan Green, 47, who traveled to Iowa from Vero Beach, Fla. last week to volunteer with Never Back Down, said that DeSantis simply has to perform better in the caucuses than current polling shows.

“Anything he does that’s above the polling is a good night, at minimum,” Green said.

DeSantis has also signaled that the Iowa results, whatever they may be, won’t slow down his campaign. He’s set to travel to Haley’s home state of South Carolina, which holds the first presidential primary in the South, the day after the caucuses before heading to New Hampshire ahead of that state’s Jan. 23 primary.

LaMarca, the Florida state representative, said that he expects DeSantis to remain in the presidential race for at least through South Carolina’s primary on Feb. 24.

“I can’t speak for the campaign or the governor, but my gut tells me he’s in it for the first three states,” LaMarca said. “Count on seeing him in New Hampshire and certainly in South Carolina.”