Florida jobless assistance claims fall. But are generous benefits causing a worker shortage?

If you noticed slower service the last time you went out to dinner, you’re not imagining things: Employers statewide and beyond say they cannot find enough workers.

On Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported new applications for unemployment assistance in Florida fell from 28,017 to 18,355. Continuing claims, or those who have filed for unemployment for at least two consecutive weeks, declined from 129,628 to 116,304. And for the U.S., new claims fell to their lowest level since the pandemic began, from 590,000 to 498,000.

Both of Florida’s new levels remain above pandemic lows. Week to week claims data can be volatile, and Florida has also suffered from a surge in fraudulent filings.

But are out-of-work Floridians taking advantage of the fact that they can now earn as much as $575 a week — equivalent to $14.38 an hour — and continue to file for unemployment while avoiding taking available jobs?

“I’ve never seen it like this,” said Tiffany Price, general manager at JobNewsUSA.com, which produces job fairs in addition to hosting an online job search platform. “People don’t have to work — they can make more money staying home.”

Price said many companies are now offering signing bonuses, while also having to reduce capacity because they simply do not have enough staff to keep up with demand.

“As soon as unemployment runs out, you’re going to see a huge change,” she said.

Others say additional factors are likely driving the worker shortage. Many service workers may have simply moved on from occupations that too often pay low wages and provide few benefits.

“A year ago it was convenient for us restaurants to lay people off for our survival,” said Abe Ng, founder of Sushi Maki. “Then a year later when they’re not coming back on our timing — it’s not surprising. It’s, ‘You laid me off when you needed to, now let me look at all my options.’ “

Some people left hospitality entirely, Ng said, or found that driving for a delivery platform like Instacart or DoorDash was more lucrative.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at research group Pantheon Macroeconomics, said in an email that it was impossible to know at the moment from data how much a given factor is driving reported labor shortages.

It would not make sense for a worker to turn down a permanent job for a temporary benefit — unless that worker believed the job would still be available when their benefits end, he said.

In public remarks last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell blamed additional factors for the shortages, including skills mismatches, geographic differences, fear of the virus, and the inability of many parents, especially women, to return to the workforce until school is out.

He also said that despite reports of some firms offering signing bonuses, many had still not raised overall pay.

“We don’t see wages moving up yet, and presumably we would see that in a real, you know, in a really tight labor market. And we may well start to see that,” he said.

Regarding overly generous benefits, Powell said, “to the extent that’s a factor, which is not clear, it will no longer be a factor fairly soon,” citing the sunsetting of federal pandemic assistance in September.

On Wednesday, Gov. Ron DeSantis said the state would be reinstating a weekly work search requirement that asks unemployed workers to confirm how they have looked for work. DeSantis said the action is in response to the inability of employers to find workers.

“I think now we’re in just a different situation, you have a surplus of jobs, particularly in restaurant, lodging, hospitality, that people want to hire,” DeSantis said. “I mean, you see the signs all over the place. Look, that’s a good problem to have. But we also just want to make sure, like, look, if you’re really unemployed, can’t get a job, that’s one thing. But making sure that you’re doing your due diligence to look for work, and making sure those incentives align better.”

In April, DeSantis dismissed the idea of increasing Florida’s regular $275-a-week unemployment benefit — among the lowest in the country — to $375 a week.

“Our unemployment is what it is. It’s fine,” he said. “The federal government obviously is putting in a lot of money.”