Florida primary 2022 live updates: Voters head to polls in Leon County, Tallahassee election

Dan Rorabaugh, Tallahassee Democrat
·11 min read
Leon County citizens lineup outside the Leon County Courthouse before the voting site opened for early voting Saturday, Aug. 13, 2022.

It's Election Day in Florida and voters are headed to the polls to cast ballots in local and statewide primary and nonpartisan races.

In local races, five Leon County Commission seats are up for grabs, voters will choose two school board members and a judge, and Democrats will vote on a candidate to face Republican Curt Bender for the District 8 seat in the Florida House of Representatives.

In Tallahassee, four people are running for mayor, while two City Commission seats also will be on the ballot.

Vote with confidence: The ultimate Leon County, Tallahassee voter's guide to the 2022 primary election

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6:25 p.m. What to watch as Tallahassee results roll in

Will candidate slates succeed? Will Republicans return to elected office in bright blue Leon County? Will the bill on the Doak vote come due for incumbents in the county and city races?

A primary election like no other — with insurgent challengers hoping to upset the government apple cart in Tallahassee and establishment candidates trying to maintain it — finally comes to a close at 7 p.m. when polls close.

At least a couple of key local races — including the bitter battle between City Commissioner Jeremy Matlow and his opponent, David Bellamy — will be decided on primary election night. Some of the other contests with more crowded fields are sure to continue to November runoffs.

With many of the candidates lined up on either side of big issues including growth and the $27 million Blueprint sales tax spend on Doak Campbell Stadium, voters have fairly clear choices as they head to the polls.

Here are a few things to watch on this Election Night

4:45 p.m. Turnout hot take by Jon Ausman: A rise in Republican share?

"With 2.5 hours to go, 20,000 persons would have to cast ballots to equal the primary turnout of 2020 or 2018. The earlier primary elections saw 76,000 plus voters cast ballots in each of them," said Jon Ausman, a former Leon Democratic Party chair who served more than two decades on the Democratic National Committee before retiring.

"So far 56,421 voters have cast ballots. When comparing turnout rates, the drop off among Democratic voters since the 2020 primary is 9.9% while the Republican drop off is 6.4%. In 2020, Democratic turnout was 43% and Republican turnout was 36.5%."

"The difference between the two parties is three percentage points and that number is closing since a higher proportion of Republicans vote at the polls. The negative campaigns among Democrats (Dailey-Dozier; Matlow-Bellamy; and from Marcelin) may have depressed Democratic turnout while inspiring Republican turnout."

"Since the City election is an attempt for a more progressive City Commission it is likely that a majority of the Republican vote will back the more moderate Democratic candidates," he wrote. "We shall see if that holds true in about four hours."

2:45 p.m.: First primary returns expected just after 7 p.m.

Voters will get a pretty good idea of who’s ahead when the first returns come in not long after the polls close at 7 p.m.

That’s when all the early votes and mail votes that have been tabulated will be posted on the Leon County Supervisor of Elections website. The Tallahassee Democrat will also post live updates throughout the night as returns come in.

Supervisor of Elections Mark Earley said the early and mail votes should be posted shortly after 7 p.m., with some of the first precincts coming in before 7:30 p.m.

“We get a lot of results in between about 7:30 p.m. and 7:50 p.m., and then it starts trickling down,” Earley said. “And we’ll be getting some stragglers in. I expect we’ll have the vast majority of our Election Day results in by 8:30 p.m.”

Earley added that there have been no major problems at any of the voting locations.

“So far, everything’s going real smoothly,” he said.

1 p.m. | Jon Ausman analyzes the turnout as votes pour in

Voter turnout may be slightly down from the 2018 pre-covid election in which 76,684 voted and the 2020 election which had 76,471 ballots cast, says Jon Ausman, a former Leon Democratic Party chair who served more than two decades on the Democratic National Committee before retiring.

"Turnout so far is 47,654 countywide. In 2020 only 20,367 people voted at the polls. In the pre-COVID election of 2018 some 40,667 voted," he wrote. "Today so far 10,118 have cast ballots at their precinct locations. That number is likely to go over 20,000 which means overall turnout will be slightly down."

"With massive amounts of cash being spent in the primary one might expect turnout to go up. Has negative campaigning caused a lower voter turnout? If yes, then the campaign managers of most of the challengers may have miscalculated," he continued noting that lower turnout elections can often benefit incumbents.

He noted that advantage could be undone if challengers expand the electorate and bring in new voters to support their candidates.

Ugliest election? 'No holds barred': Negative campaign season in Tallahassee gets uglier as Election Day nears

Noon | Vote with confidence: Resources for the Election Day voter

Tallahassee Democrat journalists have been covering the local races for months and have developed Q&As, video debates and exclusive analysis about what's happening behind the scenes and beyond the political posturing.

If you want to see the candidates go head to head in our televised forums, which were held in conjunction with the League of Women Voters and WFSU, click on the links below.

STREAM THE FORUMS ONLINE NOW

Beyond that, here's some links for voters who are still looking for clarity on the candidates.

The ultimate Leon County election guide:

10:45 a.m. | Where the candidates will be tonight

To watch party or not to watch party? That is the question facing candidates on Election Night. In tonight's races, the candidates have a variety of plans to watch returns roll in once polls close at 7 p.m.

In the Tallahassee mayor's race, incumbent John Dailey is forgoing the traditional watch party to watch his son play on the Raa Middle School football team. His challenger Kristin Dozier will be at a watch party at Waterworks in Midtown at 1133 Thomasville Road. Whitfield Leland will be at a watch party at the Signature Lounge at 242 E. Orange Avenue.

For the City Commission races, Jeremy Matlow and Adner Marcelin will both be at Warhorse at 603 W. Gaines. David Bellamy will be watching results at his home with family and Dianne Williams-Cox will be at Hotel Indigo.

When it comes to County Commission races, Terrance Barber will be at Stix Pool & Bar at 1225 N. Monroe Street and Bill Proctor will be at the Moon at 1105 E. Lafayette.

David O’Keefe will be watching results come in at a private gathering at his campaign headquarters. Jay Revell and Dustin Rivest are also sticking with family and friends and not holding watch parties.

Rick Minor will be at Beans at Betton, the bar at Food Glorious Food at 1950 Thomasville Road. Damon Victor will be sign waving until polls close and then will watch returns at home. Joey Lamar will be at Harry's at 301 S Bronough Street.

Nick Maddox will be watching returns with family at home. Challenger Rudy Ferguson will be at Island Seafood 1019 N. Monroe Street.

Christian Caban will be watching the vote tallies from home with family and friends. Hannah Crow will be at a watch party at Los Compadres at 2102 W Pensacola Street. Manny Joanos will be watching the results of the primary election tonight at Rootstock Tallahassee, 228 S. Adams Street with family and friends.

In School Board races, Alex Stemle will be at a watch party at Hangar 38. Other candidates, including Laurie Cox, Susan Hodges, Alva Striplin and Marianne Arbulu, will be watching results come in with family and friends at home.

Did we miss a candidates plans? Email us at news@tallahassee.com

9 a.m. | What's at stake in tonight's local elections

A lot.

While some local races may push into November to get a final result, tonight will provide a clear sense of the electoral appetite for change. And that could ultimately trigger a toppling in top management at the city or lead to big shifts in how Blueprint sales tax money is spent.

One of the biggest changes could be an unraveling and reshaping of the voting blocs that have come to define pivotal votes before the city commission.

Commissioner Jeremy Matlow has often found himself with Commissioner Jack Porter on the losing end of votes that have been framed as pivotal for the economic vitality of Tallahassee. Matlow has generally maintained that the projects failed to solicit enough community input or that the developments failed to provide for the "public good" while critics have branded the two as part of the "against everything" caucus.

Reversing the voting bloc, could make it tougher for developers to get their projects across the finish line.

►Read the full subscriber exclusive story here.

8 a.m. | Elections Supervisor: Be ready for recounts

Mark Earley said due to the number of local candidates, in all there are 40 people vying for city and county commission and Leon County School Board seats, recounts could become necessary after polls close at 7 p.m.

“Your vote counts maybe a little bit more this year. With a lower turnout and some of these contests with a lot of candidates in it, there’s a decent chance for some recounts. When we have recounts, every single vote, they always all count, but your vote really matters a lot.”

Campaign operatives point to internal polling that shows very close races in the mayoral and commission race between incumbent Jeremy Matlow and David Bellamy.

Matlow's race went to a recount four years ago when unofficial results showed the owner of Gaines Street Pies and other restaurants winning against credit union CEO Lisa Brown by a margin of 327 votes.

At the conclusion of a machine recount, Matlow had 37,509 votes or one fewer than he had on election night. Brown lost two votes, for a total of 37,181 or 328 votes fewer than Matlow, keeping the margin essentially the same at .44 percent, not enough to trigger a second, manual recount.

From 2018: Jeremy Matlow wins machine recount in City Commission Seat 3 race

7:05 a.m. | Leon Supervisor of Elections reporting no issues with precincts opening

There are no reported issues with precinct locations as polls open in the Leon County primary election.

Leon County Supervisor of Elections Mark Earley said early morning voting would begin without a hitch.

“Everything seems to be progressing smoothly,” he said about 20 minutes before the opening of polling locations at 7 a.m. “It’s been two years since some of the polling places, the custodians of the facility, have tried to remember to come open up. The first election of the year there’s usually a few hiccups but we should open everything on time.”

Earley said he expected voter turnout to be roughly on par with previous primaries. By the open of polls Tuesday, 12,196 people had voted early in Leon County and 23,064 mail in ballots had been received.

With 17.5% of all of the 201,884 registered voters in the county, that puts turnout at about half of what is expected in an Election Day with several high-stakes local races on the ballot. Typical turnout is somewhere in the mid-30% range, Earley said.

"We’re right on track or even a little bit higher than we’ve had in previous elections prior to Election Day,” he said. “The threshold to get to 30%, we just need about 24,000 more voters.

Voters can expect lengthy ballots this year with eight city and county commission races up for grabs and major statewide races in the Democratic primary for governor, state House, Senate, attorney general and agriculture commissioner.

7 a.m. | Polls are open! What to know if you're voting in Tallahassee, Leon County

Polls open at 7 a.m. and will remain open till 7 p.m. See polling locations in Florida. Voters in line by 7 p.m. will be permitted to cast a ballot.

Leon County voters can vote at their assigned polling location. A full list is available on the county website. You can also find sample ballots there.

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This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Primary Election Day in Florida: Live updates from Leon County voting