Florida records 20,055 new COVID-19 cases, 515 deaths ahead of projected winter surge, new variants

Ahead of a winter that experts fear may bring a new COVID-19 surge, wastewater and case data suggest cases are continuing a weeks-long downward trend in Central Florida.

“As much as you want to feel good about the fact that cases are down, hospitalizations are down, we don’t want to declare victory too prematurely,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, to CBS News on Oct. 14.

There were 20,055 new coronavirus cases recorded over the last two weeks among Florida residents, bringing the cumulative total to 7,149,300. With 515 more fatalities on record, 82,176 Florida residents have died.

The death total over the last two weeks reflects a decrease from the 522 reported in the two weeks prior, but deaths can take several days or weeks to be reported. Many newly reported deaths are of people who died before the last two weeks.

The number of cases over the last two weeks decreased compared to the 22,592 reported in the two weeks prior. Positivity stayed at 7.1%. That’s for new cases only and excludes anyone who previously tested positive.

Wastewater samples from the Altamonte Springs sewer service area — which covers parts of Orange and Seminole counties — suggest COVID-19 is headed down in this area as well.

As of Oct. 13, there’s a 92% lower virus concentration than on June 2, and an 89% lower virus concentration than on July 4, when BA.5 was first becoming dominant, according to data provided by Altamonte Springs City Manager Frank Martz.

The BA.5 subvariant mutation was detected in 100% of the genomes.

New variants are on the rise, however. On Friday, variants BQ.1 and closely related BQ.1.1 accounted for 16.6% of coronavirus variants in the U.S., CDC data suggests.

These variants do not appear to be more severe but seem to be more contagious, the UK Health Security Agency reported.

Cases with these variants will likely outnumber the BA.5 subvariant in the coming months, Fauci said.

“The projections vary a little, but generally, most people feel somewhere in the middle of November that they’ll wind up being a substantial proportion and have bumped BA.5 off as the dominant variant,” Fauci told CNN.

Now is the time to get a new bivalent booster shot, Fauci said. These shots, which target BA.5, should provide protection even against the new variants, particularly against hospitalization or death.

“It isn’t that different from BA.5 that it would completely escape the protection that you would get from vaccine,” Fauci said.

Across the state, 1,253 people were hospitalized with COVID-19 from Oct. 12-18, according to the latest White House report. In comparison, 1,581 were hospitalized two weeks ago. Four weeks ago, it was 2,458.

Statewide, 16,054,321 residents, or 72% of people age 6 months and up, have received at least one vaccination shot, including 7,794,383 who have completed their shot regimens but not received an additional dose through Oct. 20. Meanwhile, 51,207 received an additional dose this week, bringing the total to 6,053,075.

Central Florida added 4,229 resident infections over the last two weeks, based on the actual date the state opened the case, for a total of 1,404,087: 1,066 more in Orange for 454,309; 303 more in Osceola for 137,100; 982 more in Polk for 246,157; 368 more in Lake for 103,308; 171 more in Sumter for 27,996; 452 more in Volusia for 142,881; 552 more in Brevard for 166,342; and 335 more in Seminole for 125,994.

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