Florida State football schedule roundtable: Who could the Seminoles' third annual ACC foe be?

All indications are that a massive shift in how the Atlantic Coast Conference creates its football schedules could be on the way.

Nothing has officially been announced yet, but the NCAA recently announced a change to the by-laws which no longer require conferences with 12-plus teams to have divisions in order to host a conference championship game.

How the ACC could change its scheduling was one of the main talking points at the conference's spring meetings earlier this month. Although nothing is yet set in stone, one clear option has emerged as the likely new scheduling format, which could start as soon as the 2023 season.

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It's expected that the ACC will shift to a 3-5-5 scheduling format in which all 14 conference teams have a list of three set opponents they will play each season. The other 10 teams not on that set list will be played every other year in groups of five, alternating between home and away games.

From a diversity of scheduling standpoint, this means a four-year college football player would play each ACC team at least twice, once at home and once at the other team's stadium.

One of the earliest reactions to this potential shift has been trying to figure out which opponents each team would face on a yearly basis.

For FSU, two seem clear in Miami and Clemson. The Seminoles and Hurricanes have played every year since 1969, and that rivalry isn't going anywhere. FSU and Clemson have become fierce rivals as well as the titans of the Atlantic Division, accounting for a combined 12 of the 16 division titles.

The third annual opponent remains a much more open-ended question. Who could that third opponent be? What do we think of this potential schedule format change? FSU beat writers Curt Weiler and Carter Karels give their thoughts in this roundtable discussion.

Thoughts on 3-5-5 schedule model

Weiler: There's still some uncertainty about exactly what the next iteration of the College Football Playoff will be, but expansion to eight or even 12 teams seems likely. Whatever it does look like, this new 3-5-5 model would give the ACC, and FSU by proxy, a better chance at potentially getting two teams into the field. There's no denying that the elimination of divisions would give FSU better odds of making the ACC Championship Game each season. As currently formatted, only one of FSU and Clemson could make it and there were definitely years where they would have otherwise rematched in Charlotte. The good news for FSU would be it would always have a feather in its cap come CFP consideration time because of its tough annual schedule, which features Clemson and Miami.

Karels: The ACC moving to a 3-5-5 format for football generally wouldn’t change much about Florida State’s strength of schedule, one of the toughest in the conference annually. The biggest benefit for the Seminoles would instead be their easier path to the ACC Championship Game. It would no longer be beat-Clemson-or-bust.  And even when the College Football Playoff inevitably expands, that 13th data point could be useful for FSU in its argument for admission. Not to mention the variance of the schedule offers fans and players more opportunities to experience every venue in the conference.

Best-case scenario third opponent

Karels:  Syracuse. There’s probably not a close second. Syracuse has not found much success since the turn of the century and should only continue to be an easy opponent for years to come. The Orange lack the history, facilities and practically every other element that helps football programs compete with the best. The recruiting limitations that come with those factors and the school’s location also significantly lowers Syracuse’s talent pool. Against the Seminoles, the Orange have dropped 12 out of their last 13. They finished with a winning record just once in their last eight seasons.

Weiler: I agree that the best-case scenario third opponent for FSU is Syracuse. There will be other teams that some fans may clamor, but FSU deserves a third annual opponent that is among the bottom-dwellers of the ACC considering it would have to play two of the three most committed teams every year. No offense to the Orange, but there may not be more of a perennial basement ACC program than Syracuse. As Carter mentioned, there are geographical and financial limitations that have understandably kept the Orange from competing at the highest levels. They have had a winning record just twice in nine ACC seasons and have won more than 50% of their ACC games just once.

Worst-case scenario third opponent

Weiler: After considering what the worst-case scenario for FSU's hypothetical third opponent would be, I'm going with what some people quickly labeled as the obvious choice in Georgia Tech. Yes, GT is the closest ACC team in terms of distance, and there's a large FSU fanbase in Atlanta. And yes, the Yellow Jackets have been down recently, winning three games in each of the last three seasons. But these schedules have to be set with the long term in mind, and while GT has been down of late, it won seven-plus games every season except for one between 1997 and 2014. The Yellow Jackets have plenty of talent around them in Georgia, and if they became the more consistent program they once were again in the coming years, that would give FSU three very difficult annual opponents. That's the exact type of inequity the ACC is trying to avoid with this potential schedule change.

Karels: Behind Clemson and Miami, Virginia Tech comes in as a distant third on the list of ACC football programs best equipped to perpetually challenge Florida State. The Hokies are essentially a win-by-default selection here. But they still pose a threat with their commitment to football, proven track record and distinct home-field advantage at Lane Stadium. Clemson (8) is the only team with more ACC Championship Game appearances than Virginia Tech (6). When they aren’t contending for a conference championship, the Hokies are still at least decent. Their 27 straight bowl games appearances – which lasted from 1993 to 2019 – ranks as the fourth-longest streak in college football history.

Reach Curt Weiler at cweiler@tallahassee.com or follow him on Twitter @CurtMWeiler.

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This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: FSU's best, worst-case schedule scenarios in ACC's proposed format