Florida Supreme Court rulings ensure abortion takes center stage in elections

When the Florida Supreme Court signed off on a measure that would allow abortion access to appear on the ballot in November, while paving the way for a six-week ban on the procedure to take effect in the state, the justices also set the parameters of the debate for every candidate on the ballot.

Now, voters and candidates alike will have to decide in November whether they support a right to abortion “before viability” — usually around 24 weeks of pregnancy — or want to continue to limit access to the procedure at just six weeks, well before most women know they’re pregnant.

Democrats, who’ve become less competitive in the state in recent years, greeted the news that voters would vote simultaneously for president, U.S. Senate and abortion access with enthusiasm. President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign promised that “abortion rights will be front and center in Florida this election cycle.” U.S. Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, hoping to unseat Republican Sen. Rick Scott, promised that the state’s new six-week ban will “backfire” on the GOP.

But Republicans, who are framing the ballot issue as an effort to permit abortion up until birth, are equally confident, saying they’ll stage an “organized effort” to turn out centrist voters against the proposed amendment.

“This effort really will be focused on those in the middle in Florida,” House Speaker Paul Renner told reporters in a press conference on Monday afternoon, saying the abortion amendment goes “much further than where most Floridians are.”

Florida Rep. Jenna Persons-Mulika, one of the sponsors of the six-week ban, wrote in a tweet after the state Supreme Court cleared the way for the abortion ballot measure that the proposal amounted to “abortion on demand until the moment of birth” and pleaded with Floridians to “Vote No” on the measure.

But supporters of the abortion amendment say that presenting voters with a choice between a six-week ban and the old standard set by Roe v. Wade, the since-overturned U.S. Supreme Court decision that established a federal right to abortion, puts Republicans in a difficult political position.

“I can tell you I’ve been traveling across the state and there is a grassroots movement going on,” Mucarsel-Powell said. “They’re ready. They’re ready to come out and organize and vote.”

Mucarsel-Powell was quick to note that Scott had already expressed support for the six-week abortion ban and had said that he would have signed it into law if he was still in the governor’s mansion. She said that the Florida Supreme Court’s decision effectively forces Scott and other Republicans to answer for one of the most restrictive abortion laws in the country.

“It’s not a partisan political issue,” she said. “This is truly an issue of respecting a woman’s dignity, protecting her right to choose, kicking out any sort of politician or government who interferes in that decision.”

A spokesperson for Scott’s reelection campaign did not immediately respond to the Miami Herald’s request for comment.

Rick Wilson, a former Republican consultant and a co-founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, said that the abortion ballot measure isn’t a silver bullet for Democrats, given the GOP’s dominance within Florida government and the state’s rightward shift in recent years.

But he said that the issue is still likely to make Republicans play at least some defense in a state that they previously saw as an easy win.

“I don’t think it’s necessarily going to mean that the Democrats win in Florida,” Wilson said. “But it will make it a lot more expensive and more complex for the Republicans. In every survey I’ve looked at, the six-week ban is deeply unpopular, and that includes with Republican women and independent women.”

Pro-abortion rights ballot measures have a track record of success, even in some of the country’s reddest states. In 2022, voters in states like Kansas and Kentucky voted down ballot measures that would have removed abortion rights protections from their state constitutions. Last year, in Ohio, voters approved a constitutional amendment enshrining abortion access into state law.

“Support for the type of protections established by Roe v. Wade — they span the political spectrum,” Wilson said.

A poll released last November by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab found that a constitutional amendment protecting abortion access in the state is broadly popular. Sixty-two percent of those surveyed said they would support an amendment that would prohibit any law banning abortion before viability, while just 29% said they would vote against such a measure.

The ballot measure will have to win at least 60% of the vote in November in order to become law.

Lauren Brenzel, the director of the Yes on 4 campaign that led the effort to get the proposed amendment on the ballot, said during a press conference on Monday that Florida lawmakers misread the state’s electorate when they passed the six-week abortion ban last year. That could prove politically dangerous for their cause in November, she said.

“It couldn’t be more clear why we need to vote yes on this initiative in November,” Brenzel said. “This is representative of Florida politicians being out of touch with their constituents and believing that a six-week ban would be popular enough to pass, let alone implement.”

The abortion debate in Florida has also caught the attention of President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign. While the Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris still face tough odds in the state, a memo released on Monday by their campaign manager Julie Chávez Rodríguez declared that Florida is “winnable” for Democrats, thanks in no small part to the six-week abortion ban and proposed constitutional amendment to protect abortion access.

She wrote that “Florida Republicans will be forced to defend their cruel, indefensible support of this abortion ban” when they go before voters in November.

“With an abortion amendment officially on the ballot this November in Florida, President Biden and Vice President Harris and their commitment to fighting back against Donald Trump and Rick Scott’s attacks on reproductive freedom will help mobilize and expand the electorate in the state, given the overwhelming majority of Floridians support abortion rights,” she wrote.

Herald/Times staff reporter Alexandra Glorioso contributed to this report.