Foliage forecast: Looking to travel to WNC, Asheville? Experts predict peak fall colors

Sarah Honosky, Asheville Citizen Times
·4 min read
The leaves begin to show their fall colors at Graveyard Fields on the Blue Ridge Parkway on Sept. 30, 2020.
The leaves begin to show their fall colors at Graveyard Fields on the Blue Ridge Parkway on Sept. 30, 2020.

ASHEVILLE - As the first blush of fall color begins to appear at the highest elevations, the maples, dogwoods and sourwoods brightening into shades of crimson amid the lush green of their neighbors, experts are predicting a largely "on time" season.

If the coming weeks usher in more cool mornings and relatively clear days, Howard Neufeld, professor of plant eco-physiology at Appalachian State University in Boone, said some of the area's best views, like those in the 3,000-4,000-foot elevation range along the Blue Ridge Parkway, can expect peak color in mid-October.

"Right now, there’s nothing saying that it’s not going to be a good year. It could turn out to be a very good year," Neufeld told the Citizen Times.

Evan Fisher, a new UNC Asheville grad and budding fall leaf forecaster, was similarly optimistic.

“At the moment, I’m not seeing anything concerning, which is always a blessing when you’re in late September. No signs for concern as we head into the season,” Fisher said. Like Neufeld, he estimated Western North Carolina is on track for a "relatively normal year."

“We’ll start seeing those widespread peaks sweeping down hills into the valley as we get into mid- to late-October," Fisher said.

Already, he's noting low color at the area's highest elevations, those above 5,000 feet, like Black Balsam in Pisgah National Forest, Mount Mitchell and Craggy Gardens along the parkway. In Graveyard Fields, about about 35 miles southwest of Asheville on the parkway, where leaves tend to turn earlier, leaves are showing moderate color, though the rest of the area is still spotty.

Fall color along the Blue Ridge Parkway October 14, 2022.
Fall color along the Blue Ridge Parkway October 14, 2022.

Fisher, 23, an atmospheric sciences major, graduated from UNCA in the spring. He's always had a passion for weather, he said, and was bitten by "the fall foliage bug" back in 2020, an interest culminating in the September launch of ExploreFall.com, where people can find fall foliage maps and forecasts that update daily.

For his part, Neufeld runs the popular “Fall Color Guy” Facebook page, and said seasonally cool temperatures — morning lows in the mid to high 40s, moderate day temperatures no higher than 72 degrees, ideally in the 50s and 60s — meant "perfect conditions" for an on-time and vibrant season.

More: Answer Woman: Has something disrupted the Monarch butterfly migration in WNC?

As always, he cautioned about an unwanted heatwave, which would stall the development of color, though currently there is no evidence of that happening. Other wildcards, like hurricanes, can also dampen a season, but that's "not in the cards this year," Neufeld said, as far as he can tell.

It's "always kind of a shot in the dark," Fisher said of weather events like hurricanes and tropical storms, but with no widespread stress on the leaves, he predicts Western North Carolina is well positioned for a good season this year.

When are experts predicting peak fall colors?

  • High-elevation sites, such as Mount Mitchell at Milepost 355, and Craggy Gardens, at Milepost 364, on the Blue Ridge Parkway, with elevations sitting above 5,000 feet ― compared to Asheville's approximately 2,200 feet elevation ― could begin to turn the first week of October, Neufeld said. Fisher said Graveyard Fields might peak as early as Oct. 2, but the other higher elevations he put closer to Oct. 10.

  • In the 3,000-4,000-foot elevation range on the parkway, which hugs the spine of the Blue Ridge Mountains for 469 miles from Virginia to the Great Smoky Mountains National Park in Cherokee, the colors could begin to turn in mid-October, from Oct. 10 to Oct. 20, Neufeld said. Fisher said he's planning his own parkway trip for Oct. 22, when he's anticipating the best views.

  • For "on-time" colors in the city of Asheville, around the Biltmore Estate and in Hendersonville, Neufeld usually forecasts peaks in the third week, from Oct. 20 to the end of the month. Fisher is forecasting in the same window, with peaks in Asheville around Oct. 25 and beyond.

This fall foliage season comes on the heels of a glorious leaf season in 2022, which brought some of the best color forecasters had seen in a decade.

Fisher said it would be tough to beat.

"Those years are few and far between, unfortunately," he said.

Still, this year, he's predicting a good one, "but I’m hesitant to say it will be as good as last year, because I think last year was just so spectacular."

Neufeld said it's difficult to know exactly what made last year such a perfect one: bringing especially vibrant reds and historically on-time colors.

“The biggest unknown is the quality of color," he said. "People just don’t know the biology of that as well as the timing.”

Only time will tell if this season is an especially vibrant year.

"We're just going to have to wait until it happens," Neufeld said.

More: Fall foliage: Will Asheville see another vibrant leaf season? Experts give their forecast

More: 10 best places to visit in fall named by USA Today readers: Where does Asheville rank?

Sarah Honosky is the city government reporter for the Asheville Citizen Times, part of the USA TODAY Network. News Tips? Email shonosky@citizentimes.com or message on Twitter at @slhonosky. Please support local, daily journalism with a subscription to the Citizen Times.

This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: Fall foliage 2023: When will fall colors peak in WNC?