Forecasted rain won't lift the Tippecanoe County area out of moderate drought

LAFAYETTE, Ind. — Ninety-four percent of Indiana is abnormally dry or worse, said Melissa Widhalm, a climatologist with the Midwestern Regional Climate Center at Purdue University.

Tippecanoe County is in a moderate drought, based on Thursday's updated drought monitor.

Last week 9.5% of Indiana was in drought conditions, Widhalm said. This week, 39% of the state is in drought and 94% is abnormally dry or in drought.

The good news is that rain is forecasted for Thursday night and Friday morning, Indianapolis National Weather Service meteorologist Cody Moore said.

The bad news: The Lafayette area is 5.74 inches below average rainfall, and the rains forecasted for Thursday and Friday won't make up the deficit.

“It’s looking like some of the areas are going to get three-quarters of an inch,” Moore said, noting it's an estimate and some areas won't get as much. “It doesn’t look like a drought-busting rain.”

The eight- to 10-day outlook has a very small chance of rain on Tuesday, Moore said, noting that the rest of the outlook is dry.

June and July typically are wet months for Indiana, with July bringing an average of 4.26 inches of rain. So far, the skies over Lafayette have dropped .15 inches of rains in the first seven days of July, Moore said.

“We were actually running ahead of schedule, and it was like the facet turned off," Widhalm said.

The drought affects many businesses, not just farmers, Widhalm noted, explaining anyone who has to work outside, such as landscapers or construction workers, are affected by the drought.

As for farmers, those who were able to plant in April or early May before the heat set in are doing OK. Crops planted in May show more signs of drought stress, with the later-planted corn looking like pineapple tops with curled-in leaves to protect its moisture.

“A timely rain shower can do a lot of good," she said.

The moderate drought, while concerning, does not mean hope is lost for this year's harvest.

“We’re not really at the point of no return," Widhalm said.

The state’s crop progress report published Sunday indicated that crops were fair, good or excellent. Only 16% of the crops were listed as poor, she said.

2012 vs 2022

The blistering hot and dry summer of 2012 is nothing like the moderate drought that has started here, Widhalm said.

In 2012, temperatures hit the 80s in March and dried out the ground moisture even before planting.

In 2022, the first four months saw normal precipitation, Moore said. Things didn't dry out until the end of May.

“We were pretty normal in precipitation up until the end of May," Moore said.

“We are starting this spot in a much better position," Widhalm said, noting that while dry, there is more ground moister now than there was in July 2012.

“Don’t panic. These crops are resilient," she said.

In 2012, counties across Indiana adopted restrictions on water use and banned open burning.

Tippecanoe County, which draws its water from the ancient Teays River, did not impose water restrictions. The Teays River is about six miles wide underneath Lafayette and provides an abundance of water, according to 2012 J&C reports.

Tippecanoe County Commissioners did ban open burning in 2012, as well as discouraged fireworks.

Commissioner Dave Byers, who farms for a living, said we need the rain, but there has not been any discussions yet about banning open burning.

Weather is about averages

The atmosphere has a way of balancing itself out, Moore said.

“Typically, you’ll have a super dry year, then you’ll have a super wet year,” Moore said when asked about Mother Nature's way of striking a balance. “That happens a lot of times.”

“In this part of the country, we’ll make up for it.”

Reach Ron Wilkins at rwilkins@jconline.com. Follow on Twitter: @RonWilkins2.

This article originally appeared on Lafayette Journal & Courier: Lafayette's forecasted rain won't lift area out of moderate drought