Forecasters get a jump on Groundhog Day, issue spring predictions for Whatcom Co. weather

Robert Mittendorf
·2 min read
1

Friday’s weather is looking partly sunny with continued springlike temperatures for Bellingham and other parts of Western Washington, so there’s a fair chance the groundhog will see its shadow — pointing to six more weeks of winter, according to folklore.

But human forecasters are betting that the Northwest is in for an early, warm and dry spring, with a few caveats.

Chief among them is the twilight of El Niño, the weather pattern that usually gives the Northwest a warmer winter with less rain.

“El Niño is dying, and the Northwest will get drenched,” because a La Niña will form quickly, University of Washington meteorology professor Cliff Mass wrote last week in his weather blog.

Analysts at the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center tend to agree, predicting a shift to neutral conditions in spring followed by a La Niña, which historically brings cold and wet winters.

This year’s El Niño proved the exception and has delivered rainfall well above normal — including in the mountains, where unseasonable rain has left the North Cascades snowpack at 53 percent of normal, according to the USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service in a report issued Wednesday.

December 2023 rainfall of 5.67 inches topped the average 4.33 inches, according to National Weather Service records for Bellingham International Airport. January rainfall was 6.6 inches through Tuesday, against the normal rainfall of 4.49 inches. December’s normal high temperature is 45.6 degrees, and December 2023 had an average high of 50. Average January high temperature is 46.3 degrees, but the monthly average this year is 43.3 degrees — driven by a weeklong cold spell.

More seasonable temperatures are in the forecast for the next week or two, followed by a trend for a warm and dry spring, according to National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center and the private forecasting service AccuWeather, which issued its spring outlook on Wednesday.

But things could get wet by late spring in Washington, Oregon and Idaho, AccuWeather’s long-range forecaster Paul Pastelok said.

“The Northwest actually could get a little bit wet again as we head into May,” he said.

Weather forecasters mark March 1 as the first day of spring for seasonal predictions, calling it “meteorological spring.”

Astronomical spring starts with the equinox when night and day are equal, which is at 8:06 p.m. PDT on March 19.