Forecasters increase chance for a tropical depression near the Caribbean this week; Tropical Depression 12 forms in the Atlantic

Robin Webb, Amber Bonefont, Shira Moolten, South Florida Sun-Sentinel
Updated ·2 min read

Tropical Depression 12 formed Tuesday in the central Atlantic Ocean and is expected to become a tropical storm in the next day or so.

National Hurricane Center forecasters are also monitoring an area near the Caribbean Sea that is likely to become a tropical depression later this week as it approaches South America, a path that would be generally similar to the initial formation of Hurricane Ian.

As of 8 p.m. Tuesday, the tropical wave had a 60% chance of developing in the next two days and a 80% chance of developing in the next five days, an increase from the 70% chance predicted Tuesday afternoon.

A hurricane hunter plane investigated the tropical system Tuesday afternoon and reported that the disturbance remains without closed circulation or a defined center.

The disturbance is currently hindered by strong upper-level winds, but conditions will likely become more conducive for a tropical depression to form while it continues to move to the west at about 15 mph, if it stays far enough away from land. Conditions likely will become even more conducive for development later this week when the system reaches the central and western Caribbean Sea.

Should it develop into a depression, or even a tropical storm, it is forecast to stay well south of Florida and the southeastern portion of the United States.

As of 8 p.m. Tuesday, Tropical Depression 12 was moving northwest at about 12 mph with peak winds of 35 mph.

The depression is expected to be short-lived. It could become a tropical storm by Wednesday, then dissipate by Thursday, the latest advisory said.

The next two tropical storms to form would be Julia and Karl.

Residents across Florida are continuing to evaluate damage after powerful and devastating Hurricane Ian came ashore on Sept. 28 in Lee County as a Category 4 storm with winds of 155 mph. Ian is one of the strongest storms ever to make landfall in the United States.

Barrier islands along the southwest Gulf coast took the hardest hit, with many regions unlivable. Central and northeast Florida are monitoring rising waters left behind after the storm crossed the state and regained hurricane strength before coming ashore again in South Carolina.