Do Forestar Group's (NYSE:FOR) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?

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Like a puppy chasing its tail, some new investors often chase 'the next big thing', even if that means buying 'story stocks' without revenue, let alone profit. And in their study titled Who Falls Prey to the Wolf of Wall Street?' Leuz et. al. found that it is 'quite common' for investors to lose money by buying into 'pump and dump' schemes.

So if you're like me, you might be more interested in profitable, growing companies, like Forestar Group (NYSE:FOR). Now, I'm not saying that the stock is necessarily undervalued today; but I can't shake an appreciation for the profitability of the business itself. In comparison, loss making companies act like a sponge for capital - but unlike such a sponge they do not always produce something when squeezed.

See our latest analysis for Forestar Group

How Fast Is Forestar Group Growing Its Earnings Per Share?

In the last three years Forestar Group's earnings per share took off like a rocket; fast, and from a low base. So the actual rate of growth doesn't tell us much. As a result, I'll zoom in on growth over the last year, instead. Like a falcon taking flight, Forestar Group's EPS soared from US$1.07 to US$1.37, over the last year. That's a impressive gain of 28%.

One way to double-check a company's growth is to look at how its revenue, and earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) margins are changing. Forestar Group maintained stable EBIT margins over the last year, all while growing revenue 55% to US$992m. That's progress.

In the chart below, you can see how the company has grown earnings, and revenue, over time. To see the actual numbers, click on the chart.

earnings-and-revenue-history
earnings-and-revenue-history

You don't drive with your eyes on the rear-view mirror, so you might be more interested in this free report showing analyst forecasts for Forestar Group's future profits.

Are Forestar Group Insiders Aligned With All Shareholders?

Like the kids in the streets standing up for their beliefs, insider share purchases give me reason to believe in a brighter future. That's because insider buying often indicates that those closest to the company have confidence that the share price will perform well. Of course, we can never be sure what insiders are thinking, we can only judge their actions.

Forestar Group insiders both bought and sold shares over the last twelve months, but they did end up spending US$42k more on stock than they received from selling it. When you weigh that up, it is a mild positive, indicating increased alignment between shareholders and management.

I do like that insiders have been buying shares in Forestar Group, but there is more evidence of shareholder friendly management. Specifically, the CEO is paid quite reasonably for a company of this size. For companies with market capitalizations between US$400m and US$1.6b, like Forestar Group, the median CEO pay is around US$2.2m.

Forestar Group offered total compensation worth US$1.6m to its CEO in the year to . That comes in below the average for similar sized companies, and seems pretty reasonable to me. While the level of CEO compensation isn't a huge factor in my view of the company, modest remuneration is a positive, because it suggests that the board keeps shareholder interests in mind. I'd also argue reasonable pay levels attest to good decision making more generally.

Is Forestar Group Worth Keeping An Eye On?

Given my belief that share price follows earnings per share you can easily imagine how I feel about Forestar Group's strong EPS growth. And that's not the only positive, either. We have both insider buying and reasonable and remuneration to consider. The message I'd take from this quick rundown is that, yes, this stock is worth investigating further. We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Forestar Group that you need to be mindful of.

The good news is that Forestar Group is not the only growth stock with insider buying. Here's a list of them... with insider buying in the last three months!

Please note the insider transactions discussed in this article refer to reportable transactions in the relevant jurisdiction.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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