Former congressman says Trump could lose some supporters

Apr. 4—PLATTSBURGH — Former Congressman Bill Owens says that if Donald Trump is convicted, it might not affect too many of his most loyal supporters, but it could alter how the Republican Party moves forward.

"I would suspect that it (a conviction) will cause a small percentage of independent voters to move from him," Owens said.

"But I'm not sure it has much impact on his core voters."

OTHER CASES

Owens, an attorney and a Democrat from Plattsburgh, served in Congress from 2009 to 2015, said he feels that three other legal cases against Trump that are pending are stronger than the case that Trump was just indicted on.

If he were to be convicted on any of those, he could see Trump losing more supporters.

But despite Trump's troubles, many Republicans, including North Country Congresswoman Elise Stefanik (R-Schuylerville) are standing behind him, saying he is being wrongly prosecuted.

'HE BRINGS A BASE OUT'

Owens said those Republicans are scared of losing support from Trump's base.

"He brings a base out and that's your vote in the primaries," Owens said.

"And they (Republicans) know that if they lose those voters, they stand a good chance of being beaten by someone in a primary."

LEGAL MANEUVERING

Owens said there is a split chance that Trump gets convicted.

"I think there is about a 50-50 chance he gets convicted. I think he'll push this to a trial. Certainly his strategy has been to delay and scream that he's been persecuted," Owens said.

"There's probably enough legal maneuvering in here by him to substantially delay the trial, and I think if the trial doesn't start sometime by next March, I don't think they will go forward with the trial at that point because of the potential for interference with the election."

OWENS: TRUMP LOSING APPEAL

Trump and other Republicans have already been fundraising on his indictment and Owens said the outcome of that is interesting.

"The numbers that I saw surprise me," he said.

"They indicated Trump had raised about $4 million, which is really small change. I would have expected that if this was causing a groundswell of support for him, I would have expected that number to be three or four times more than $4 million."

Some Trump supporters may be having a change of heart, Owens said, simply because he has not done well for Republicans in recent elections.

"I think that after three consecutive electoral loses, that is a problem for them," he said.

"If he runs again, that could mean a fourth defeat. I'm not sure that they're moving away from him on principle, but more on practicality."

LOOKING AHEAD

There will still be a certain amount of voters who support Trump no matter what, Owens said, but even some of them may be discouraged.

"They see somebody who speaks the language that they want to hear. They're not particularly concerned about results that he gets," Owens said.

"One topic that he hammered incredibly was China, and he really had very little impact on China in terms of decreasing imports from China. There were other reasons why there was a decrease in imports, but it wasn't what he did that caused it. So I think that people are disgruntled with what his outcomes have been."

Even if Trump does not run for president again in 2024, Owens feels that his base will still not leave him, which could further damage the GOP.

"For whatever reason, if Trump does not run, that base will not be moved from him. They will stay there," he said.

"The risk that I think that poses for Republicans is that those people don't come out to vote."

Or, Owens surmised, Trump could run as a third party, which would also be very harmful for any Republican candidate.

"Democrats could literally, I think, run any reasonable candidate for president and win," he said.

'A STRATEGIC ERROR'

Owens himself was a benefactor of a split Republican Party when he won in 2009. The Republican Party was divided when Doug Hoffman of Saranac Lake ran as a Conservative Party candidate after Dierdre Scozzafava of St. Lawrence County became the GOP candidate.

Owens' win was the first by a Democrat in the district since the Civil War.

The former congressman said he will watch the Trump case with interest.

"My view is that this was a strategic error by the Democrats. I would have much preferred one of the DOJ cases or the Georgia case be brought first because I think those are clear cases of wrongdoing by Trump, and in many cases more important than this," he said.

Owens is hoping that the events that unfold surrounding Trump and his actions end up having a more positive impact on the nation.

"I think the way the Justice Department reacted to January 6, having gotten several 100 convictions and putting people in jail for lengthy periods of time... people who are really on the fringe are now thinking, 'this may not be a good idea,'" he said.

"And it may be one of the more important things that we've seen happen out of all of this in terms of putting the country back into some level of normality in terms of how people act and speak."

E-mail: jlotemplio@pressrepublican.com

Twitter: @jlotemplio