Former defense minister Zahorodnyuk on how long the war might last
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“It will all come down to fatigue – military, political, economic, social, etc.,” Zahorodnyuk said in an interview with NV.
But the current stage of the eight-year-long war – Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine – might not last that long, he said.
“If we manage to launch a large-scale counteroffensive by the end of the year, it would preclude a prolonged war,” Zahorodnyuk said.
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“We will win if we manage to seize momentum and prevent the enemy from sorting themselves out and restoring (their combat ability).”
At the same time, Azeri military expert Agil Rustamzade told NV that Russia’s stockpile of ammunition and ordnance won’t last for much longer than 90 days, since their production relies on technological imports that have ceased due to Western sanctions.
He estimated that ammo shortages could lead to a lull in hostilities by mid-August.
Nevertheless, Rustamzade added that it’s very difficult to reliably forecast a possible end to this war, since the conflict has morphed into “a typical 3rd gen long war, where motivated belligerents leverage massive numbers of troops along extensive front lines.”
He added that the outcome of the war “doesn’t depend exclusively on successful military campaigns.”
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