Former N.C. governor expected to launch Senate bid this week

Pat McCrory, the former Republican governor of North Carolina, is planning to launch his campaign for the state’s open Senate seat this week, according to people familiar with his plans.

The former governor, who won the office in 2012 and lost reelection in 2016, would begin the primary in the race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Richard Burr as an early frontrunner.

McCrory has been expected to run for Senate for months, but he has not publicly indicated that a decision was finalized. He’s expected to formally launch the campaign this week and has been assembling a state and national team for the campaign, according to a source familiar with his plans.

North Carolina is expected to be one of the most expensive races in the country next year and is a key state for Republicans to hold as they aim to win back the Senate majority from Democrats, who control the chamber 50-50 with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking ties.

Former Rep. Mark Walker is the only major Republican candidate in the race so far and has been consolidating endorsements since launching his campaign in December. Rep. Ted Budd is also seriously considering a bid. Lara Trump, former President Donald Trump's daughter-in-law and campaign adviser, has said she is considering running in her native North Carolina but has not yet taken any public steps toward launching a campaign.

Recent polling conducted for McCrory shows he would enter the race with a large lead over Walker and Budd, as well as extremely high name identification among likely Republican primary voters, according to a copy of the polling memo obtained by POLITICO. His high name ID and an early lead in a hypothetical primary matchup are not surprising given his past statewide campaigns and one term as the state’s governor, while neither of the potential opponents has run statewide before.

The survey was conducted by Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies, and the memo was addressed to McCrory and Paul Shumaker, a veteran Republican operative in the state who has worked with Burr and Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.). Shumaker declined to comment Monday morning.

The memo said McCrory was viewed favorably by 58 percent of likely primary voters and unfavorably by 13 percent. Walker was viewed favorably by 20 percent of GOP voters and unfavorably by 4 percent; Budd was viewed favorably by 16 percent and unfavorably by 5 percent.

McCrory led with nearly half the vote in a hypothetical three-way matchup: 48 percent, compared to 13 percent for Walker and 9 percent for Budd. He also led both in one-on-one matchups. The polling memo did not include Lara Trump.

The poll surveyed 500 likely GOP primary voters by interactive voice response from April 6-8, with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.

Democrats are actively contesting the seat, after failing to unseat Tillis last November. Thus far, state Sen. Jeff Jackson and former state Sen. Erica Smith are in the race. Cheri Beasley, the former chief justice of the state Supreme Court, is expected to run and could launch a campaign soon, while former NASA astronaut Joan Higginbotham, who has never run for elected office, is also considering a bid.