Formula 1 betting: Can Mercedes keep up with Red Bull and Ferrari at Silverstone?

Will the British Grand Prix (Sunday, 10 a.m. ET, ESPN2) be the catalyst for a Mercedes surge?

The eight-time defending constructors champions have struggled — by their lofty standards — in 2022 as Formula 1 teams are racing with completely new car designs. Red Bull has been the fastest team of the season by far, while Ferrari has been the only team capable of keeping up with defending champion Max Verstappen and his teammate Sergio Perez.

Mercedes currently sits third in the constructor standings behind Red Bull and Ferrari, with George Russell fourth in the points standings and Lewis Hamilton sixth. Hamilton is 98 points back of Verstappen after he lost out on the title to Verstappen on the final lap of the final race a season ago.

The British Grand Prix was a pivotal moment in the title fight between Hamilton and Verstappen. The two drivers started alongside each other on the front row and made contact on the first lap. That contact sent Verstappen crashing and saw Hamilton penalized, but Hamilton rebounded to win the race.

Mercedes is planning some more upgrades to its car ahead of the British Grand Prix as its drivers have won eight of the last 10 races at the track. Silverstone is a relatively high-speed track with smooth corners and similar to Barcelona. Hamilton was one of the fastest cars on the track at the end of the Barcelona race but settled for a fifth-place finish after he had to pit on the first lap because of a flat tire from contact with Kevin Magnussen.

If Mercedes hits on those upgrades then it will be keeping pace with Red Bull and Ferrari again. That’s no guarantee, however, and the odds reflect that. Hamilton is +1000 to win Sunday’s race and Russell is +1200. Their odds are even worse for the pole. Both drivers are at +2500 to score the pole position.

While we think that Hamilton or Russell won’t be a contender for the pole, a top-three starting spot could put either in contention for a race win. Verstappen is the deserved favorite for the win at -110, but it may be worth a flier at Hamilton to get to victory lane. Mercedes is going to figure out its issues sooner rather than later. And that “sooner” could happen this weekend.

Here are some of the bets at BetMGM that we like ahead of the British Grand Prix.

Over 16.5 cars to finish the race (-150)

Seventeen or more cars have finished each of the past four races at Silverstone.

Charles Leclerc to win Free Practice 1 (+165)

After changing power units at Montreal, Leclerc and Ferrari should be back to being the fastest out of the gate.

Pole position margin between 0.1 and 0.25 seconds (+185)

While it’s certainly possible the top two cars will be separated by less than a tenth of a second, we’re going with a margin somewhere just over a tenth given the length of the circuit.

The driver who starts second will lead lap 1 (+225)

The polesitter leading Lap 1 is at -225 and we’re going to take the risk that whoever starts in second has a better launch and ensuing lap.

Lewis Hamilton to win the race (+1000)

Yes, we said this was a flier. But we’re confident that it can be a profitable weekend even without this Hamilton bet hitting. And it’s time to swing for the fences.