The pandemic housing market frenzy may have slowed, but that doesn’t mean Fort Worth real estate has returned to normal.

As we head into the housing market’s most robust season, here’s what Fort Worth buyers, sellers and renters can expect.

What’s going on in Fort Worth’s housing market?

Spring and summer are the busiest times of year for the housing market, but this year, real estate agents are unsure how the season will unfold.

“It’s been tumultuous,” said Shelby Kimball, a broker at Kimball Real Estate and former president of the Greater Fort Worth Association of Realtors.

According to the association, in February in Fort Worth:

• The median home price was: $325,000, down 2.1% from a year ago.

• There were 1,772 active listings, up 153.5% from a year ago.

• 776 sales were closed, down 10.1% from a year ago.

• There was 1.9 months of inventory, up from 0.6 in February 2022.

What do those numbers that mean?

The housing market has cooled significantly. And, while prices are down and more houses are on the market, many buyers have backed off due to rising mortgage rates.

Fort Worth home values and sales

Map shows the average home values by ZIP code in the Fort Worth area, and the chart shows total home sales in Fort Worth for the last two years.

Dataherald/Star-Telegram

What are mortgage rates doing?

After dropping from their November peak, mortgage rates jumped at the end of February. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.62% for the week that ended Feb. 17. But since the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in early March, rates fell by the most in four months. Between the week ending in March 10 and the week ending in March 17, average rates tumbled from 6.71% to 6.48% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.

April 6 marked the fourth consecutive week of mortgage rate decline, to 6.28%, said National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. It’s possible rates could dip below 6% by the end of the year, he predicts.

“This is because, with so much apartment construction, the new empty units steadily hitting the market will limit rent growth and calm overall consumer price inflation. The Federal Reserve can therefore stop tightening,” Yum wrote.

How’s the rental market?

The rental market tends to lag behind the housing market. Accordingly, we’re starting to see the price cooling in rentals that have persisted in the housing market for a few months, said Jon Leckie, a researcher at Rent.com.

Between February 2022 and February 2023, the median price of apartments in Dallas-Fort Worth was down 2.5%. Rents decreased in the Metroplex about 0.5% month over month, according to Rent.com.

Fort Worth home value and rent price change

Where should first-time buyers look?

There are some great entry-level options in south Fort Worth neighborhoods like Wedgwood, Edgecliff, Candleridge and South Hills, northwest of the city in River Oaks, east of downtown in Meadowbrook and on the outskirts of the Metroplex in Weatherford and Cleburne, said Kimball.

“Right now there are definitely some deals to be had if you’re flexible with your desires on your house, there are houses on the market that you can actually negotiate on,” said Kimball.

Are we still seeing multiple offers are certain price points?

Yes, for homes with a “desirable location, appropriately priced and in good condition,” said Kimball. But not nearly as often as during the height of the pandemic housing frenzy.

How are buyers faring?

Buyers are finally able to negotiate with sellers again, said Kimball. They’re less likely to encounter bidding wars or make offers substantially above the asking price.

The market is more competitive for sellers than a year ago, so sellers are more likely to repair their homes before putting them on the market. In the height of the pandemic housing market frenzy, sellers could put their homes on the market as-is.

So, is it a buyer’s market now?

No. While prices are down and time on the market is up, inventory was still less than two months in February. A “balanced market” generally requires six months of inventory. So, it’s still very much still a seller’s market, said Kimball.

“There’s still people moving here, which has been the story for many, many years. And there’s still people coming out of leases who are tired of paying some pretty high rents,” he said.

What do current market conditions mean for first-time homebuyers?

Interest rates have been unpredictable, but some new measures could help newcomers enter the housing market.

HUD announced it was decreasing mortgage insurance premiums. On an FHA home, that would save the average buyer about $800 a year, said Kimball.

Plus, the Texas Legislature is poised to increase the homestead exemption on property taxes.

“Every little bit’s going to help,” said Kimball, “For the first-time homebuyers especially.”

Since prices are down from last year, can I expect my property tax appraisal to go down?

No. Tarrant Appraisal District Chief Appraiser Jeff Law said Tarrant County homeowners can expect to see residential property values jump between 10 and 20% this year.

How is that possible if the market is slowing?

The appraisal you’re about to receive is a reflection of what TAD thinks your house was worth on Jan. 1, 2023. At the end of Dec. 2022, the median home price in Tarrant County had risen 6.1% from the year before.

However, that wasn’t a linear jump. The median home price in Tarrant County peaked at $380,000, a jump of 15% from the beginning of the year. The year ended with homes at $350,000. Appraisal districts use data from the previous year, meaning your appraisal could reflect price fluctuations experienced throughout the year.

“The appraisal district is just doing what the law requires them to do,” said Chandler Crouch, a broker and property tax consultant who helps people protest their appraisals. “The real problem is the law.”

The property tax code was developed in 1979 “without the idea that we could have double digit price appreciation,” said Crouch.

What’s the outlook for the spring?

During spring and early summer, the housing market typically heats up. Buyers want to get into a new house before the school year starts.

But, uncertainty about interest rates has moderated local Realtors’ optimism about this spring. Mortgage rate fluctuations are also likely to keep would-be first-time homebuyers renewing their leases.

Rent.com’s Jon Leckie predicts we’ll see an uptick in rental prices come spring.

“We’re getting back to the seasonal trends we saw before the pandemic,” he said.