Four disturbances are moving through the Atlantic. One has a 70% chance of formation

Devoun Cetoute, David J. Neal, Grethel Aguila
·2 min read
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There are four disturbances in the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean as of Sunday night.

One of the systems will — more than likely — become a tropical depression. But Donal Harrigan, a National Weather Service Miami meteorologist, doubts it’ll have much impact on the weather. So far, it doesn’t look very strong.

“For the upcoming week, that... potential tropical system out in the Atlantic won’t have any effect on us,” Harrigan said.

Over the next few days, Miami will see showers and thunderstorms, Harrigan said. The showers will move inland, become widespread across the center of Florida and, later, reach the west coast.

For Harrigan, it’s still too early to tell how the potential tropical depression will affect Florida.

“As far as it affecting the the mainland U.S., that’s still a little bit beyond the forecast period,” he said.

Here’s the National Hurricane Center’s 8 p.m. update on each disturbance.

Disturbance No. 1

An area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic, at about 15 degrees north (parallel with Honduras) and 45 degrees west, is producing “disorganized cloudiness and showers,” the NHC said.

But the NHC also notes, a tropical depression is “likely to form later this week while the disturbance moves slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the waters east and northeast of the Leeward Islands.”

Environmental conditions ahead of the system may prevent the disturbance from significantly developing.

The formation chance over the next two days has increased to 50%. And over the next five days, 70%.

Disturbance No. 2

This “small low pressure system located about 600 miles east of Bermuda” is expected to dissipate over the next few days after it “drifts southward over the central Atlantic.”

Strong winds and dry air are expected to limit significant development of the disturbance, according to the NHC.

The formation chance over the next five days is put at 10%.

Disturbance No. 3

This system could develop slowly later in the week “while it moves generally west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico,” the NHC said.

The formation chance over the next five days is estimated at 20%.

Disturbance No. 4

This tropical wave could come off Africa’s west coast on Monday, according to the NHC.

The disturbance can develop while it moves generally westward across the far eastern tropical Atlantic.

It’s five-day formation chance is put at 20%.