Four Evansville-area House races are contested, but upsets aren't likely. Here's why.

EVANSVILLE − Every Southwestern Indiana member of the state's House of Representatives is seeking re-election Nov. 8.

And if any of them are denied new two-year terms, it would qualify as a significant upset.

Republicans control 71 of the 100 seats in the Indiana House, and as the majority party, the GOP also has power over how district lines are drawn. In recent years, that process has rendered most elections non-competitive − at least in the Evansville area.

Re-election threats against incumbents would seem greater in a party primary than in a general election. However, the recent history hasn't stopped several challengers from campaigning aggressively this fall, hoping to flip a local House seat.

It remains to be seen if this year's rancorous debate over abortion policy in Indiana, which resulted in a near-ban of the procedure, will change the dynamics of legislative elections.

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"Districts are drawn with political motivations in mind," said Trent Engbers, associate professor of political science at the University of Southern Indiana. "It is constitutional in our system of government, as long as they (districts) are not drawn to disadvantage a particular class or group."

The science of drawing legislative districts "has become more and more complex," Engbers added. "Big data and super computing has enabled politicians to draw safe districts. It's an issue as old as our democracy, but it has taken on a different dynamic with the advent of technology."

Still, Engbers added, a central tenet of politics is that anything can happen. "There are surprises," he said.

Here's a rundown of contested legislative elections in the area.

Indiana House District 75

This district covers large portions of Warrick County including some of Newburgh, Boonville, Chandler, Elberfeld and Lynnville, as well much of Spencer and Pike counties. It been held by Republican Cincy Ledbetter since 2020. Ledbetter received 61% of the vote in that year's general election.

Ledbetter, who is a psychiatric nurse practitioner, is challenged on Nov. 8 by Democrat Zack Davis, a union ironworker.

The General Assembly's passage this year of Senate Bill 1 − the statewide abortion ban at any stage of gestation except in cases of rape, incest, fatal fetal anomalies or when the pregnant person’s life is at risk − has been an issue in this and other local races for the legislature.

Ledbetter, who opposes abortion except when the mother's life is in danger, voted against Senate Bill 1 because she said it does not do enough to ensure access to contraception and a host of other public health services. She said she also finds the legislation too ambiguous for physicians to follow.

Davis supports abortion rights. His campaign literature urges voters to "vote the candidate, not the party" and he said higher teacher pay would be a priority issue if elected.

Ledbetter said her priorities if re-elected would include workforce development, improving access to mental health services, and the needs of farmers.

Indiana House District 76

Republican Wendy McNamara is seeking her seventh term representing Posey County and sections of western and northern Vanderburgh County. She pulled 64% of the vote in her most recent general election. This year, her opponents are Democrat Katherine Rybak and independent Cheryl Batteiger-Smith.

McNamara, who is director of the Evansville Vanderburgh School Corp. Early College High School program, said many of her past legislative efforts have focused on law enforcement priorities and criminal code issues, and that that would continue in a new term.

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McNamara sponsored the House version of Senate Bill 1, the near-ban of abortion, during this year's special session on abortion. Her abortion viewpoint has been criticized from both directions by her election opponents.

Rybak, a retired attorney, supports abortion rights. Batteiger-Smith, meanwhile, wants a 100% abortion ban and said she petitioned to join the race solely because of that issue. She works in an Evansville insurance office.

McNamara and Rybak also have clashed on the issue of energy production, with Rybak advocating more rapid transitions to renewable energy sources.

Indiana House District 77

The only local district that has been solidly in Democratic hands is represented by Ryan Hatfield, an Evansville attorney and former deputy prosecutor. Hatfield is the ranking Democrat on the judiciary and labor/employment committees, and he's a member of committees on utilities and public health.

Hatfield received 63% of the vote in 2020. He was first elected in 2016.

Republicans passed up the District 77 race this year, but Hatfield does have an opponent: Jada Burton, a University of Southern Indiana student running on the Libertarian Party ticket.

Burton, who also works in a coffee shop, is in a professional studies program at USI. She said she's running for the legislature out of concern for rising utility bills, and she supports an expansion of school choice opportunities.

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Hatfield and Burton both support abortion rights, as well as the legalization of cannabis.

Burton said her "life experience" is what differs her the most from Hatfield. "I’m younger. I’ve grown up in poverty, and I know what it means to live on welfare. I know what it means to not get the best education that can be provided for you."

Hatfield said in response: "I have gone to work every day representing the people of Evansville, fighting for legislation that I believed would help them in their daily lives and fighting against legislation that I thought would be harmful for them."

Indiana House District 78

District 78 includes most of northern and eastern Vanderburgh County, as well as much of the Newburgh area in Warrick County.

It's the first general election test for Tim O'Brien, who a Republican caucus chose in 2021 to complete the term of Holli Sullivan after Gov. Eric Holcomb appointed Sullivan to be Indiana's secretary of state.

Sullivan captured 64% of the vote in the 2020 general election. O'Brien, a real estate broker with F.C. Tucker Emge, trounced a Republican primary opponent in May and now faces Democrat Jason Salstrom on Nov. 8.

At 30, O'Brien is the youngest member of the General Assembly. The Hobart, Indiana, native graduated from the University of Southern Indiana and stayed in the area.

O'Brien co-authored legislation to lower the state's income tax rate from 3.23% to 2.9% and and said his financial background led to an appointment on the Ways and Means Committee.

"I'm the voice of Southwest Indiana on one of the most influential committees in the state," O'Brien said at a recent forum hosted by the local Property Owner and Manager Association. He's also on the Elections and Apportionment Committee.

Salstrom's background is in economic development. He earned a doctoral degree in Israel, worked for USI and in 2017 was hired by Purdue University to launch its Purdue@WestGate initiative.

Salstrom said he's running for the legislature because of reports showing Indiana is under-performing most other states in areas such as wage growth and education.

"The problem is really the Statehouse," Salstrom said recently at a League of Women Voters forum. "The decline of the state has accelerated since the current regime took over 10-12 years ago."

Salstrom's campaign also has called for putting more governing authority in the hands of local municipalities rather than state government.

O'Brien voted in favor of the state's near-total abortion ban. Salstrom supports abortion rights.

Unopposed races

Republican Rep. Matt Hostettler of Indiana House District 64 is unopposed for a new two-year term, and Republican Sen. Jim Tomes of Indiana Senate District 49 has no opposition for a new four-year term.

Hostettler, first elected to the House in 2018, represents northernmost Vanderburgh County, all of Gibson County and part of Pike County. Tomes, a senator since 2010, represents Posey County, western Vanderburgh County and southern Gibson County.

This article originally appeared on Evansville Courier & Press: Indiana House races in Evansville area unlikely to lead to upsets