Four things to know about TCU’s next opponent, the Baylor Bears

The last two times the TCU and Baylor football programs have faced off, there have been massive implications.

In 2021 TCU knocked Baylor out of playoff contention with a stunning 30-28 win in Fort Worth. The Bears had a chance to do the same in 2022, but had their hearts broken by a walkoff Griffin Kell field goal at the final whistle.

The stakes will be much lower this time with TCU simply trying to make a bowl game and Baylor coach Dave Aranda possibly fighting to keep his job after another disappointing year.

Bragging rights and avoiding another disappointing outcome is the only thing on the line in what the two schools meet on Saturday at Amon G. Carter Stadium in a game they call the Bluebonnet Battle.

Here’s four things to know about Baylor:

Offense stuck in neutral

Why has Baylor only won three games this season? Because the Bears have one of the worst offenses in the Power Five. Baylor currently ranks No. 99 in scoring offense with just 22.9 p oints per game. The only teams Baylor has scored 30 or more points against this season have been Texas State and Big 12 newcomers UCF and Cincinnati. Baylor lost that game to Texas State by the way.

What do the numbers say about the Baylor offense aside from the fact the Bears can’t score? The Bears have one of the worst rushing offenses in the country. The team is barely averaging 110 yards on the ground per game and runners have been limited to just three yards per carry on average.

Dominic Richardson was a big pickup from Oklahoma State for the program, but he’s failed to have the season he was hoping for with just 428 yards and no touchdowns. When you come into every game one-dimensional it makes things much harder. TCU can’t allow Baylor to finally find rhythm on the ground on Saturday.

Ineffective QB play

Whether it be because of injuries or a lack of execution, Baylor has been unsettled at the quarterback spot all season. Starter Blake Shapen has missed three games this season after an early season injury. When he’s played, he’s been okay with some decent raw numbers.

He’s thrown for just under 2,000 yards and has 12 touchdowns in seven games. But a deeper look reveals Shapen hasn’t had a game with a quarterback rating above 50 since playing UCF and Texas State. He’s failed to complete at least 60% of his passes in four of his last five starts and has thrown an interception in three straight games. Shapen can have some good moments, but it’s fair to say he hasn’t become the quarterback Baylor envisioned after leading them to a win in the 2021 Big 12 championship game.

Another name to know is Sawyer Robertson, a Mississippi State transfer that the Horned Frogs also went after this past off-season. In place of Shapen Robertson has been bad with just one touchdown and four interceptions in four games while only completing 49.5% of his throws. Whoever is at quarterback has struggled and TCU can’t let Saturday be the day that changes.

Exploitable offensive line

All of Baylor’s offensive struggles trace back to five guys up front. You could make the case the Bears have the worst offensive line in the league. No team has allowed more sacks than Baylor with 30. Shapen has been sacked a staggering 24 times in seven games.

Protection wasn’t much better for Robertson either. On paper the numbers suggest this would be a good matchup for the TCU pass rush which is fourth in the league with 22 sacks. An offensive line that can’t physically impose its will in the run game or protect the quarterback should be exploitable. If TCU handles its business in the trenches it should have a great opportunity to add another win over its rival.

Defensive dropoff

Even worse than the offense has been the way the defense has been carved up this season. Two seasons ago Dave Aranda had the Bears looking like one of the best defenses in the country. Now Baylor is allowing over 32 points per game which ranks No. 116 in the country. Baylor was 69th last year and then brought in a new defensive coordinator which clearly hasn’t worked.

The Bears have actually played decently against the pass with quarterbacks only averaging about 215 yards per game, but why attack through the air when you can average five yards per carry? That’s what Baylor has been allowing to teams on the ground with opponents rushing for almost 190 yards per outing. The pass rush is bad with only 17 sacks on the season.

Baylor ranks 12th in the league in defensive efficiency which shows how fall the defense has fallen the last two games. If TCU can’t put up points on Saturday it will be a failure on offense.