Fox News Voter Analysis: Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s path to Nevada win

Days after election night, all eyes were on the crucial Nevada Senate race as it remained too close to call. As near-final vote totals posted on Saturday, incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., emerged victorious. Her win, coupled with Sen. Mark Kelly’s in the Arizona Senate race, ensured Democrats would maintain control of the Senate.

Cortez Masto’s narrow win was powered by younger voters, union households and urban voters.

Data on Catherine Cortez Masto's voters
The voters who helped power Cortez Masto to a win in Nevada.

At the same time, Republican Adam Laxalt garnered support from rural voters, White voters and older voters.

Data on the voters supporting Adam Laxalt
The voting groups that backed Adam Laxalt for senator.

With the Democrat doing well in the cities and the Republican running strong in rural areas, the race came down to a battle for the suburbs. These voters backed Cortez Masto by about five points.

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Hispanics, who make up about 17% of the electorate in Nevada, are an important group and they went for Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto by over 20 points.

Hispanic voters supported Cortex Masto
Cortez Masto saw big support from Hispanic voters.

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In a race that wound up giving Democrats majority control of the Senate, it is no surprise that which party controlled the upper chamber was one of the major issues for voters in the Silver State. Almost six in ten said it was the single most important factor to their vote for Senate – and these voters broke narrowly for Laxalt.

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Laxalt also won by nearly 30 points among those who said inflation was the single most important factor to their vote. Cortez Masto had a similar advantage among those who prioritized the future of democracy.

The Dobbs v. Jackson Supreme Court decision on abortion may well have swung the election. One-quarter of voters said it was most important to their vote, and nearly four times as many went for Cortez Masto as backed Laxalt.

Support from voters driven by the abortion case
The impact of the Dobbs v. Jackson decision on Nevada's voters.

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Methodology

The Fox News Voter Analysis is a survey of more than 90,000 voters and 20,000 nonvoters conducted from Oct. 31 through Nov. 8. Full methodological details are available here.